tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53112267840546475212024-02-23T02:43:28.375-05:00Market Chat With Getting TechnicalCommon Sense Technical Analysis – free of conflict and hidden agendasGettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.comBlogger543125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-45620366135850639792017-08-29T13:32:00.002-04:002017-08-29T13:32:24.532-04:00Time to own some gold:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>A few weeks ago I bought a gold miners</b> ETF based on a
Coppock Curve signal. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">The Coppock Curve is rarely used today but according to
Wikipedia the Coppock curve or Coppock indicator is a technical analysis
indicator for long-term stock market investors created by E.S.C. Coppock, first
published in Barron's Magazine on October 15, 1962. The indicator is designed
for use on a monthly time scale. It is the sum of a 14-month rate of change and
11-month rate of change, smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Coppock,
the founder of Trendex Research in San
Antonio, Texas, was
an economist. He had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying
opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like
bereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how
long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he
used those periods in his calculation.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">A
buy signal is generated when the indicator is below zero and turns upwards from
a trough. No sell signals are generated (that not being its design). The
indicator is trend-following, and based on averages, so by its nature it
doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become
established.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Coppock
designed the indicator (originally called the "Trendex Model" for the
S&P 500 index, and it has been applied to similar stock indexes like the
Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is not regarded as well-suited to commodity markets,
since bottoms there are more rounded than the spike lows found in stocks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif-W8GtpARt1QJOEwVFLw2tiMS7aZ9QznB7bQgI0NwQVeoGsP4_41nQrecpGNexpftLhs8t7IKtkF_bcrMwcjlCB098npVe8omgYaACjNZHhm6DK7iPS0sXmjfe1qFeIRgGi9yOKSNzYs/s1600/GLDSLV.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="502" data-original-width="659" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif-W8GtpARt1QJOEwVFLw2tiMS7aZ9QznB7bQgI0NwQVeoGsP4_41nQrecpGNexpftLhs8t7IKtkF_bcrMwcjlCB098npVe8omgYaACjNZHhm6DK7iPS0sXmjfe1qFeIRgGi9yOKSNzYs/s320/GLDSLV.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-22997758577408089642017-05-29T16:59:00.001-04:002017-05-29T16:59:18.486-04:00Timing the market is not wise:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>But if you must try</b> - w</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">e use a 26-Week Price Channel on the
TSX as replicated by the S&P/TSX60 iShares ETF (XIU). Investors should
remain fully invested during a “buy” and then go to a 10 to 15% cash position
during a “sell” signal.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">A
26-Week Price Channel (6-month) is a best fit for the volatile TSX60 index.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">The
last signal on the TSX60 was a BUY on May 27, 2016 at 20.82 on the index. On
our chart – a weekly on the XIU we have noted the top and bottom price
channels. Note also the mid line (dashed) which is an early warning – currently
about the same number as the May 26 close on the XIU.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">What
ever happened to “Sell In May?” – in any event enjoy but your on your own with
this call. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">By
the way - a 30-week Price Channel seems to work better for the S&P500.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ7ze3z_onkzMB0A9z0YlFrbq8-KqfuYf-q0eVjdLpc960RcY5ibXXtdyPqY5ZH1wfOI-CHPaB7WawgP_5FJVSmcDWEY5lkY9Hh9bIybEIRfUxS4D1LJlEirK1rB2-A6sGSB03ELLemuw/s1600/MAY30.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="502" data-original-width="652" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ7ze3z_onkzMB0A9z0YlFrbq8-KqfuYf-q0eVjdLpc960RcY5ibXXtdyPqY5ZH1wfOI-CHPaB7WawgP_5FJVSmcDWEY5lkY9Hh9bIybEIRfUxS4D1LJlEirK1rB2-A6sGSB03ELLemuw/s320/MAY30.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-59121257791048499272017-05-03T15:26:00.003-04:002017-05-03T15:26:49.395-04:00More on Guns or Butter? <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Paul
Anthony Samuelson was an American economist, and the first American to win the
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. His textbook Economics – ISBN-
0-07-0 092863-0 has become a classic in which he states in a chapter – Central
Problems Of Every Economic Society - that a nation has to choose between two
options when spending its finite resources. It may buy either guns (invest in
defense / military) or butter (invest in production of goods), or a combination
of both.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">United States</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"> president Lyndon B.
Johnson used the phrase to catch the attention of the national media while
reporting on the state of national defense and the economy. Another use of the
phrase was British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher's reference in a 1976
speech that, "The Soviets put guns over butter, but we put almost
everything over guns.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Investors
who are confused as to the Guns or Butter choice when it comes to investing
should talk to their adviser. The stock charted is probably is a better choice</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgokp-H-RIk0FvW2kfbKlqPJMTqZDUDeqcz9HKwoVu-emRuAqollk0SmMLbzeWHSYBeKz9u52ojg2OAHXbj5mVCJUOcDYZ-dSq9sWYgLxxTlz5ZUYBWZW8akct40PL8rqqSpWsLCEHsSAw/s1600/CAEINC.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgokp-H-RIk0FvW2kfbKlqPJMTqZDUDeqcz9HKwoVu-emRuAqollk0SmMLbzeWHSYBeKz9u52ojg2OAHXbj5mVCJUOcDYZ-dSq9sWYgLxxTlz5ZUYBWZW8akct40PL8rqqSpWsLCEHsSAw/s320/CAEINC.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-33947082602248777132017-04-07T12:42:00.001-04:002017-04-07T12:42:27.896-04:00Will that be Guns or Butter?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>Paul
Anthony Samuelson was an American economist</b>, and the first American to win the
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. His textbook Economics – ISBN-
0-07-0 092863-0 has become a classic in which he states in a chapter – Central
Problems Of Every Economic Society - that a nation has to choose between two
options when spending its finite resources. It may buy either guns (invest in
defense / military) or butter (invest in production of goods), or a combination
of both.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">United States</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"> president Lyndon B.
Johnson used the phrase to catch the attention of the national media while
reporting on the state of national defense and the economy. Another use of the
phrase was British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher's reference in a 1976
speech that, "The Soviets put guns over butter, but we put almost
everything over guns.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Investors
who are confused as to the Guns or Butter choice when it comes to investing
should talk to their adviser. The consumer sector charted is probably not a
good choice.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjdD9yWJOr-U31LO0FUoxWC3PWiFPt25jgjlTu-OHjAa9YS0gQOXz3msQf3PSQnvh5SG0dDRP-GhvoHPG603x1chckAvRWOF239RaxiPHmNYzXw_WNsrj0zpv_p-kIDHETx0yVuvt6i8Y/s1600/XLY.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjdD9yWJOr-U31LO0FUoxWC3PWiFPt25jgjlTu-OHjAa9YS0gQOXz3msQf3PSQnvh5SG0dDRP-GhvoHPG603x1chckAvRWOF239RaxiPHmNYzXw_WNsrj0zpv_p-kIDHETx0yVuvt6i8Y/s320/XLY.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-64373487510758593352017-03-16T14:42:00.001-04:002017-03-16T14:42:20.166-04:00TV Talking Heads vs. Investing:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>As
you know</b> – many of the broader Global stock indices are at or close to all-time
highs.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">We
at Getting Technical conclude that any attempt to time the market is a failed
strategy and that investors who use fully invested longer term models do better
than investors who over-trade or market time. A long time ago a wise investor told me
that most technical analysts who ”time” the markets end up with the ass out of
their pants.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">I
am continually upset with technical analysts who use seasonal recommendations to
buy and sell and also the technical analyst who tells the TV viewers to act on
top like patterns such as the head & shoulders, key reversals and now
recently an island reversal formation. It is frustrating for an investor to buy
low, sell high and then have to buy back in even higher.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Investors
who use fully invested dominant theme models do better than investors who
over-trade or market time and our focus will remain on the Global, TSX models
and Dominant Theme investing.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkMN3whMF3BeGO5jUr0gUOWWwYqTFrM01vDBl9oD6EBdyOQCdklBPx1-M14wOg4uxi1YKJYedQXZURHBZF9o0zz-MNBXA6OhTv-TqJbtqPvitUbTk3xqaQSuQOsfpj_wVHzGnKsdJ8i3I/s1600/ISLAND.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkMN3whMF3BeGO5jUr0gUOWWwYqTFrM01vDBl9oD6EBdyOQCdklBPx1-M14wOg4uxi1YKJYedQXZURHBZF9o0zz-MNBXA6OhTv-TqJbtqPvitUbTk3xqaQSuQOsfpj_wVHzGnKsdJ8i3I/s320/ISLAND.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-29328502233452738762017-02-25T15:52:00.001-05:002017-02-25T15:52:06.843-05:00Long Term Market Cycles:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>The
Coppock Curve is rarely used today</b> but according to Wikipedia the Coppock curve
or Coppock indicator is a technical analysis indicator for long-term stock
market investors created by E.S.C. Coppock, first published in Barron's
Magazine on October 15, 1962. The indicator is designed for use on a monthly
time scale. It is the sum of a 14-month rate of change and 11-month rate of
change, smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Coppock,
the founder of Trendex Research in San
Antonio, Texas, was
an economist. He had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying
opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like
bereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how
long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he
used those periods in his calculation.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">A
buy signal is generated when the indicator is below zero and turns upwards from
a trough. No sell signals are generated (that not being its design). The
indicator is trend-following, and based on averages, so by its nature it
doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become
established.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Coppock
designed the indicator (originally called the "Trendex Model" for the
S&P 500 index, and it has been applied to similar stock indexes like the
Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is not regarded as well-suited to commodity
markets, since bottoms there are more rounded than the spike lows found in
stocks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Strategy
- Investors should remain fully invested during a “buy” and then go to a 10 to
15% cash position during a “sell” signal. The last “buy” on the TSX60 was signalled
in April, 2016 at 20.54 on the index.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgngC4NLKTvp35ZvvxiU0WecSxjkzPtN4brYd9PWVL7weLr1yiKh4B7OOvuMNq72RihMkyiJOm4WjAnvU2FCnAiMJAyqiDaET0RtK98Uym3orTfvyHwYgpUGL6ZGKMKVnkIPVJkilhxuD4/s1600/COPPOCK.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgngC4NLKTvp35ZvvxiU0WecSxjkzPtN4brYd9PWVL7weLr1yiKh4B7OOvuMNq72RihMkyiJOm4WjAnvU2FCnAiMJAyqiDaET0RtK98Uym3orTfvyHwYgpUGL6ZGKMKVnkIPVJkilhxuD4/s320/COPPOCK.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-33249577845619146552017-02-14T16:36:00.003-05:002017-02-14T16:36:57.010-05:00Most market timers are out of time:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>As
you know</b> – many of the broader Global stock indices are at or close to all-time
highs. We at Getting Technical conclude that any attempt to time the market is
a failed strategy. Investors who use fully invested longer term models do
better than investors who over-trade or market time. Investors who use fully
invested dominant theme models do better than investors who over-trade or
market time. Our focus will remain on the Global, TSX models and Dominant Theme
investing</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">At
Getting Technical our historical market studies dictate that bear markets print
a lower low within a rolling 26 to 30 week time window. The TSX timing model displayed
is based on a simple 26 week price channel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Strategy
- Investors should remain fully invested during a “buy” and then go to a 10 to
15% cash position during a “sell” signal. The last “buy” on the TSX60 (23.49) was
signalled on May 27, 2016 at 20.82 on the index.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaottLJu7Q8tQ9mDniasJEZMYnSND922mRe-Knm77aceMVvvJpzc0Ws8faBWVVTQNzaXheojh9F3LfHGtGh-zK9IXwDjnA1oBOEdzMvBLt_zMyWiSvZJJmV_jqPsqeIDIzedZxjB53jnE/s1600/TSX60.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaottLJu7Q8tQ9mDniasJEZMYnSND922mRe-Knm77aceMVvvJpzc0Ws8faBWVVTQNzaXheojh9F3LfHGtGh-zK9IXwDjnA1oBOEdzMvBLt_zMyWiSvZJJmV_jqPsqeIDIzedZxjB53jnE/s320/TSX60.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-69049199974723415182017-01-30T12:43:00.001-05:002017-01-30T12:43:29.816-05:00What is going on?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>I
see last week I see most of the base metal miners</b> (to include Cameco) all trading
at or close to new 52-week highs.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Some
of the names – Capstone Mining, First Quantum, Hudbay Minerals, Lundin Mining and Teck
Resources. We know there is no exchange traded fund for this small group and we
know the TSX has dropped the Mines & Metals Index – so we need a clone or
proxy to participate</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">I
note that when I was on BNN Market Call Last June with MDI at $7.01 a said – “This
is basically the canary in the mineshaft for the mining space. The miners have
done really well, so this is the major way to play the recovery and resurgence
of interest in the mining sector.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Since
then – not one quest has mentioned the name</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwRiVfho77o773WP7kVKU-BnPsmpymu2TSFIWqwQQ-dzKFPEBy5mDHmr8WREmIh8D5v713bVF2jeYMkS5QTfjEc2OwfRPjxjAGPdh4sAGngn759enbPegvUas7T4datDWMhhr9vfiGuKk/s1600/MDI.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwRiVfho77o773WP7kVKU-BnPsmpymu2TSFIWqwQQ-dzKFPEBy5mDHmr8WREmIh8D5v713bVF2jeYMkS5QTfjEc2OwfRPjxjAGPdh4sAGngn759enbPegvUas7T4datDWMhhr9vfiGuKk/s320/MDI.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-49358741514599237342016-09-24T17:41:00.003-04:002016-09-24T17:41:48.146-04:00What is with Info-Tech?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>I
see last week</b> the TSX listed iShares S&P/TSX Info Tech ETF (XIT) traded up
to close at perhaps an all-time high. The XIT, according to the manager - seeks
long-term capital growth by replicating the performance of the S&P/TSX
Capped Information Technology Index, net of expenses.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Years
ago the sector (index) was dominated by Nortel – now the sector is capped and has
matured and broadened out to hold about 20 names to include the likes of CGI
GROUP INC (GIB.A), CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INC. (CSU), OPEN TEXT CORP (OTC), BLACKBERRY
LTD (BB) and DH CORP (DH).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Technically
we know the technology sector is economy sensitive and so the current strength of
the XIT is very bullish for the broader markets. Our chart is the weekly bars
of the XIT – with the related 40 week simple moving average - plotted above the
TSX 60 Index – in this case the clone iShares (XIU).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Note
the price is above a rising 40-wk MA. The lower study is a ratio, or spread
smoothed by a 20-week simple moving average. Note the out perform through 2014
and 2015 – a short under perform and now the recent return to out perform.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl23ENBw60K1ABQtftQNuzcEBNHwUrH-LxwZ722eJMVgBTSr5hPxNXQ_9sYfWo4eALQQBLvfIRptgiFlwE434RmuKZ0PJmbqNjt3By4aPwd9I8EM4YGnrgPDWOYhydOn6hmAKS2y0MeQQ/s1600/XIT.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl23ENBw60K1ABQtftQNuzcEBNHwUrH-LxwZ722eJMVgBTSr5hPxNXQ_9sYfWo4eALQQBLvfIRptgiFlwE434RmuKZ0PJmbqNjt3By4aPwd9I8EM4YGnrgPDWOYhydOn6hmAKS2y0MeQQ/s320/XIT.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-42665869367535041542016-08-31T18:54:00.001-04:002016-08-31T18:54:08.346-04:00Are you a Bull or a Bear?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>Technically
a picture is worth a thousand words</b> –certainly worth more than a compelling
story. It is that compelling story that keeps us in a losing investment – long after
the picture looks bad.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Technically
we know the financial stocks lead the broader equity markets and finally the
best technical indicator
is the very long term primary trend line. So all the technician needs is a long
term bar chart – monthly bars – a semi-log scale and a straight edge</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">The
lower study is the old reliable Joseph E. Grandville On-Balance-Volume (OBV)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">The
plot of 10+ years of Goldman (GS) tells it all</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">.</span></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-52633848072434340102016-08-12T14:46:00.001-04:002016-08-12T14:51:32.462-04:00Popular torpedo stocks;<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>According to BNN</b> the shares of Concordia
International tumbled six per cent on Friday after the company replaced its
chief financial officer and slashed its outlook</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Most technical analysts I know were not surprised –
visit comments on Stockchace.com</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Stockchase.com
2015-05-22 <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>COMMENT - Bill
Carrigan re Concordia Healthcare Stock Symbol: CXR-T ($83.70) “Chart shows a
long run up with a sort of spiked top. Thinks these types of companies are
overcrowded trades. They are driven by promises with great stories. He would
just avoid it unless you are a trader.”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Stockchase.com
2016-03-24 <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>DON'T BUY - Bill
Carrigan re Valeant Pharmaceuticals Stock Symbol: VRX-T ($41.20) “There is a
technical rule on spikes. There is a head and shoulders pattern suggesting
downside is on the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Usually it takes
2 or 3 years to correct the damage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does
the price lead the fundamentals? He can show you that they were in trouble
before the last torpedo. The technicians knew the 50% sell off was coming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In many cases you cannot avoid them. This was
a case where you could avoid it.”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">The
technical rule on torpedoes is that in many cases you can’t predict them
(Potash) but some are preceded by warnings – such as an over-loved story that
has broken down below the important 40-wk moving average – the other rule is to
never invest following the torpedo – it takes up to three years to repair the
story</span></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-85497270652087762542016-08-11T16:32:00.001-04:002016-08-11T16:32:18.844-04:00Stupid cheap for a reason?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>A
few weeks ago analyst John Zechner</b> selected TorStar (TS.B) $1.56 as a top pick –
”this is just a pure value pick. It’s not that he likes management or the
industry. It has a market capitalization of about $120 million. There is net
cash of about 60. There is an enterprise value of about $60-$70 billion.
Dividend yield of 16.56%. Stupidly cheap.”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Now
there are a number of annoying buzz words I flee from – and one of them is
cheap – I have always lost money on “cheap” stocks.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Technically
the stock has a history of long bears and short bull phases.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Fundamentally
the company has three paths to follow. The controlling shareholders could take
the company private, or they could sell the company or – they could press on
and take the stock to penny stock status. Eventually most penny stocks get delisted
– a sad end to a once great enterprise.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtrVRDF7qCokJ7yBqn_6XjnaoXpJdx4l1gVke_6ohAnGfPxRYu7gNxWmEV2lavKY-ShOdAWBhUfoeNQ0Wr3sUO2FlOMUV5goPnWGHPCvXXik8mgFbx1OBZJ9PWj2Ly6EDJRrLc4186ZNo/s1600/TSB.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtrVRDF7qCokJ7yBqn_6XjnaoXpJdx4l1gVke_6ohAnGfPxRYu7gNxWmEV2lavKY-ShOdAWBhUfoeNQ0Wr3sUO2FlOMUV5goPnWGHPCvXXik8mgFbx1OBZJ9PWj2Ly6EDJRrLc4186ZNo/s320/TSB.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-6310199802616615352016-08-05T14:07:00.003-04:002016-08-05T14:07:39.228-04:00Watch the U.S. Financials:<!--[if !mso]>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>Just
to refresh</b> - the term Bellwether – was derived from the Middle English
Bellwether which refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a
castrated ram – (a wether) in order that this animal might lead its flock of
sheep. Just to refresh - no bull market can operate without the leadership – or
participation from the financial sector.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Just
to refresh – on the bullish inverse head & shoulder (H&S) formation. Bigger
is better – so yes a daily bar an inverse H&S is good – but a larger weekly
bar inverse H&S is better. Also the first or left shoulder should be longer
in duration than the right shoulder and the volume is usually greater on the
left shoulder – sometimes the head has the most volume but never the most volume on the right shoulder.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Two
charts today – a daily bar of the SPDR Financial (XLF) displaying a small inverse
H&S and a weekly bar of the SPDR Financial (XLF) displaying a large inverse
H&S – clearly very bullish for the broader U.S. equity markets. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_JlP-KoKcqVJuacH-dQzWTawa-LhTjBUdZEXMAnXZxkm6bk8j8Zh5mFyPqJJHBgy9cTX75JunICGKvBDpA1hz6GORyFJqSXXNQPv0UJytd24hrs4IdKQeFerIrBd3tEUzcW2aDxjrqqM/s1600/XLFD.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_JlP-KoKcqVJuacH-dQzWTawa-LhTjBUdZEXMAnXZxkm6bk8j8Zh5mFyPqJJHBgy9cTX75JunICGKvBDpA1hz6GORyFJqSXXNQPv0UJytd24hrs4IdKQeFerIrBd3tEUzcW2aDxjrqqM/s320/XLFD.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihYcbVYS7i-ck6jq2J6JzXp2HEYC6dYGpDW1X-bA0mGTh6Rtkg0CWnPQj5UFT_x7XK0ivLoG5JZazDDOR4LaLUBYfyMgRIJYmy6YaMsRGjFvRTEZL8e_xIn_1JGvjAW611wWJ8jPMX-vc/s1600/XLFW.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihYcbVYS7i-ck6jq2J6JzXp2HEYC6dYGpDW1X-bA0mGTh6Rtkg0CWnPQj5UFT_x7XK0ivLoG5JZazDDOR4LaLUBYfyMgRIJYmy6YaMsRGjFvRTEZL8e_xIn_1JGvjAW611wWJ8jPMX-vc/s320/XLFW.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"></span></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-18505513401908338942016-07-15T13:08:00.004-04:002016-07-15T13:08:59.147-04:00Watch the Bellwethers:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>A
year ago many</b> market bellwethers had broken down below long term moving
averages. The term Bellwether – was derived from the Middle English Bellwether
which refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated
ram – (a wether) in order that this animal might lead its flock of sheep.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Some
improved market bellwethers are Goldman Sacs (financial), Disney &
AutoNation (Consumer), Gilead (Health Care),
FedEx (transports), Boeing & Caterpillar (industrial) and Apple
(technology)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">The
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) is a component of the Financial Select Sector SPDR
ETF (XLF). Goldman leads most bull and bear market cycles having peaked in
October 2007 and bottoming in November 2008. Goldman has completed a short 2015
bear phase and should lead the XLF higher through 2016 + thanks to
Stockcharts.com for the point & figure</span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi370GepdWBah0KgtV1pTvQNXDEZ-7i8Ep0wIQIqdzlHLF7lkpsGNgWlVDxo6nmkgtpfW6kGmUv4m-dgSvlpNAYD_2pQlqWEiWheU3QbMc6laN1-CpYyFjzEMXzZeBK0JPDWRRPWm-5Mgk/s1600/GS.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi370GepdWBah0KgtV1pTvQNXDEZ-7i8Ep0wIQIqdzlHLF7lkpsGNgWlVDxo6nmkgtpfW6kGmUv4m-dgSvlpNAYD_2pQlqWEiWheU3QbMc6laN1-CpYyFjzEMXzZeBK0JPDWRRPWm-5Mgk/s320/GS.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-91708897026440916322016-07-06T15:26:00.004-04:002016-07-06T15:26:56.991-04:00More on the Guns or Butter question:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>Paul Anthony Samuelson was an American economist</b> and
the first American to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. His
textbook Economics (ISBN- 0-07-0 092863-0) has become a classic in which he
states in a chapter entitled “Central Problems of Every Economic Society” that
a nation has to choose between two options when spending its finite resources.
It may buy either guns (invest in defense/military) or butter (invest in
production of goods), or a combination of both.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson used the phrase to
catch the attention of the national media, while reporting on the state of
national defense and the economy. Another use of the phrase was British Prime
Minister, Margaret Thatcher's reference in a 1976 speech that, "The
Soviets put guns over butter, but we put almost everything over guns.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The US seems to favour Gums over Butter – so why not
drill down into the sector and seek out the Aerospace and Defense names – In
the U.S.
there are lots of aerospace & defense related companies - L-3
Communications Holdings Inc. (LLL), Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), United
Technologies Corp (UTX), Honeywell International (HON), Boeing Co/The (BA). General
Dynamics Corp (GD), Raytheon Co (RTN) and Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC). Many of
these names are at or close to new 52-week highs.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The related ETFs are the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
(ITA) and the PowerShares Aerospace & Defense Portfolio (PPA) :</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">In Canada
the choices are slim with a few thin traders – such as Magellan Aerospace (MAL)
and Heroux-Devtek Inc (HRX). We are left with CAE Inc (CAE) a liquid pure
aerospace play. Our chart – monthly of LMT displays a pending new bull cycle –
recent all-time highs and strong money flow numbers</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEICjq0rBpft-d_zGT4ctbhyUw5_pJ9j_yYaozyTUznwzFoe6ruqQYpuy-aUmbupO5om2BCTq1akZIrZ4ktKtW-HlPOzaucXK8NPk9tCpwai17H72r5sn8VyuZZ2ewQ73Puvn2OJ9UukE/s1600/LMT.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEICjq0rBpft-d_zGT4ctbhyUw5_pJ9j_yYaozyTUznwzFoe6ruqQYpuy-aUmbupO5om2BCTq1akZIrZ4ktKtW-HlPOzaucXK8NPk9tCpwai17H72r5sn8VyuZZ2ewQ73Puvn2OJ9UukE/s320/LMT.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-26413204818236560422016-06-21T14:57:00.003-04:002016-06-21T14:57:57.733-04:00So – just what is a bull market?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0lazIftsx4Mlkx72fCtdVnvhlIZKm6woL-nZ41k0BztrsELmuvM4CMQEab1t4leO87JLXdLwzl_QK9ZS4KGu94jxsL2Fc3JZh_Er2XWxBrOpP-wnvDfkSHo8oFVW5wwmXE6A85NkneuI/s1600/S%2526PBULL.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>In my previous post</b> I referred to Ned Davis Research who
deems that “a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bear Market requires a 30%
drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after 50 calendar days or a 13%
decline after 145 calendar days.” Also according to Ned Davis Research during a
study period from January 2, 1900 through December 31, 2010, (over 100 years) big
corrections in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are actually quite rare.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Dips of 5 % or more totalled 378 or 3.4 per year</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Corrections of 10 % or more was 122 or about 1 per
year</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Bear declines of 20 % or more was 32 or about I every
3.5 years</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">The business media claim that a decline of 20% puts
the market into “bear territory.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">At Getting Technical our historical market studies
dictate that bear market prints a lower low within a rolling 26 to 30 week time
window. In other words – in order to be a bear, a broad stock index
like the S&p500 must print a lower low within a rolling six month window – if not –
then it is a bull. The S&P500 from late 2012 through June 2016 charted bear
is based on a simple 26 week price channel and note the 2 downward violations
of Aug 22, 2015 and finally on Jan 22, 2016 – we are now past the 6-month
window and so if not a bear then it’s a bull.. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeDlE-Mq9ZrxZGHYNZ-vhU_taBcpS_A7BTXCRl05etfUldLmqGjyxnfDggSo0si16ID_SZtW2yrKuOPqvAdXvHLMWWhe6oSdD8OzdGErpVRUcI8Chfv_Ik3UChSceE0JTN-TXVMVa0zIY/s1600/S%2526PBULL.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeDlE-Mq9ZrxZGHYNZ-vhU_taBcpS_A7BTXCRl05etfUldLmqGjyxnfDggSo0si16ID_SZtW2yrKuOPqvAdXvHLMWWhe6oSdD8OzdGErpVRUcI8Chfv_Ik3UChSceE0JTN-TXVMVa0zIY/s320/S%2526PBULL.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-46994783055312506282016-06-15T21:30:00.001-04:002016-06-15T21:30:42.515-04:00So – just what is a bear market?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>Ned Davis Research</b> deems that “a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bear Market requires a 30% drop in the Dow
Jones Industrial Average after 50 calendar days or a 13% decline after 145
calendar days.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Also according to Ned Davis Research during a study
period from January 2, 1900 through December 31, 2010, (over 100 years) big
corrections in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are actually quite rare.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Dips of 5 % or more totalled 378 or 3.4 per year</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Corrections of 10 % or more was 122 or about 1 per
year</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Bear declines of 20 % or more was 32 or about I every
3.5 years</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The business media claim that a decline of 20% puts
the market into “bear territory.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">At Getting Technical our historical market studies
dictate that bear market prints a lower low within a rolling 26 to 30 week time
window. In other words – in order to be a bear, a broad stock index
like the TSX Composite must print a lower low within a rolling six month window – if not –
then it is a bull.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The TSX late 2014 through 2015 charted bear is based
on a simple 26 week price channel</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK2hQApDqQa7mboQpgydGgvzPrQUQ_ubvr-EgF2M2oaeDKSbpYGLEXqNV6iY7Z0Xg2T1v3axd0mKTlm6NV8WXHr9cIozIyPVMXGLp413GUpZUxJybFQX1632fqg_Qa2vtd3CMj7sKZK4k/s1600/TSXBEAR.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK2hQApDqQa7mboQpgydGgvzPrQUQ_ubvr-EgF2M2oaeDKSbpYGLEXqNV6iY7Z0Xg2T1v3axd0mKTlm6NV8WXHr9cIozIyPVMXGLp413GUpZUxJybFQX1632fqg_Qa2vtd3CMj7sKZK4k/s320/TSXBEAR.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-84495855803015628632016-06-02T16:22:00.001-04:002016-06-02T16:22:05.036-04:00The DJII - America Yesterday and Today:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>The changing components of the Dow Jones Industrial
Average</b> (DJII) reflect the gradual transition of America
yesterday to America
today. Years ago – back in the 1980’s investors enjoyed the returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
which ran from about 800 to over 3000 in ten years – a triple.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Back then the Dow was truly “industrial”
with eighteen industrial
relater components. There were only six consumer related components with the
rest being energy, financial and IBM or “big blue”. Those were the days when the
Dow components employed people who made stuff - Allied Chemical, Aluminum
Company of America, American
Can, Bethlehem Steel, Du Pont, Eastman Kodak
Company, General Electric Company, General Motors Corporation and Goodyear –
just to name a few of the employers.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Today the Dow is no longer “industrial: with only six
industrial manes and twelve consumer names. So instead of working at Goodyear
and Union Carbide the jobs go to McDonald's Corp and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Yes today’s Dow is populated by companies that sell
stuff to Americans that was made somewhere else. We can go to Dow components
Wal-Mart, grab a Coke and burger at McDonalds, pick up a Disney movie, get a
cell phone plan from Verizon Communications Inc. and use our Visa Inc. credit
card. We could also run our American Express Company card at The Home Depot,
Inc to cover the purchase of Asian flooring. And yes you could look for shoes
from Nike, Inc while you’re out there.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjy9ve45dGbDaQ_zonuYNj9MP7WY_0v7hP4nZz57bnZd5Kg7I6JPRGWJvU-nxkqrN1Df6MxnqIAMMSiFVA_bwvKCNIXlofZXDK9gi0oUJogiJ_0_hNvyBxkYxLeMrW3GoajkiWTvzK2VU/s1600/DOWOLD.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjy9ve45dGbDaQ_zonuYNj9MP7WY_0v7hP4nZz57bnZd5Kg7I6JPRGWJvU-nxkqrN1Df6MxnqIAMMSiFVA_bwvKCNIXlofZXDK9gi0oUJogiJ_0_hNvyBxkYxLeMrW3GoajkiWTvzK2VU/s320/DOWOLD.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-60700997255771120582016-05-29T22:25:00.000-04:002016-05-29T22:25:03.272-04:00Index Analysis and Voodoo Science:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>Technical analysis gets into trouble</b> when the art from
migrates from the study of stocks, commodities and currencies and into the
price forecasting of the major stock indices such as the S&P/TSX Composite,
the S&P500 or the NASDAQ Composite.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Not a day passes when some technician looks at a
major stock index and sees a head & shoulders top, support or resistance at
so-and-so level, a double top or a double bottom. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pile on seasonality, moving averages, price momentum,
historical comparisons and you get an index forecast that may be correct –
about one-half the time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The problem is that a major stock index is a basket of diverse sectors (like
financial, energy or consumer) that – for the most part – do not advance and decline
at the same time. Remember the great dot-com bust of 2000-2002? It was a
non-event if you owned financial and energy stocks. Our own TSX Composite is
dominated by three sectors – financial, energy and materials. If you add in the
industrials we have about 76% if the index
covered.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Our chart – the monthly
bars of the TSX Composite spanning about 10-years. Note the two great advances
that followed the 2007-2008 financial crisis collapse. The 2009-2011 advance
was lead by the financials (XFN), energy (XEG) and materials (XMA). The second
great advance of 2012-2014 was lead by the financials (XFN), energy (XEG) and index heavy-weights BCE,
CNR and VRX. Now we have a pending third advance to be lead by (once again) the
financials (XFN) and energy (XEG). The materials sector looks weak but a strong
industrial sector (ZIN) may do some lifting to bost the TSX Composite at least
back to the 2014 highs of the 15600 level.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQZ1cDMLUkAiVSf9VYpXuViZ-Cz2DgFXg60vOjDAToQFIBaqR9gcSR3hDPDuhLaMXTGqScgUqyx2f5W5B2Zri3-RnTc67grlT9scdt_u9mxjzgLWJRaQi1qjzZ2OWStxj7jPKNrPVkP5M/s1600/TSXCOMP.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQZ1cDMLUkAiVSf9VYpXuViZ-Cz2DgFXg60vOjDAToQFIBaqR9gcSR3hDPDuhLaMXTGqScgUqyx2f5W5B2Zri3-RnTc67grlT9scdt_u9mxjzgLWJRaQi1qjzZ2OWStxj7jPKNrPVkP5M/s320/TSXCOMP.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-36184064947550486072016-05-19T15:33:00.003-04:002016-05-19T15:33:58.629-04:00The Problem With Street Consensus:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The problem with “street” or analyst consensus is the
interests of the “street” and the private investor are not closely aligned.</span></b></div>
<b>
</b><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">In my last post I referred to an item on Tesla Motors Inc. by Toronto
Star columnist David Olive - <a href="http://www.pressreader.com/canada/toronto-star/20160514/281874412627633">http://www.pressreader.com/canada/toronto-star/20160514/281874412627633</a>
- “Is the Tesla excitement just magical thinking?” Olive hammers home some valid problems with
mounting losses, production questions and the debt levels. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Now a few days latter - an item from Business Insider
- Myles Udland – relating to Goldman Sachs and Tesla Motors <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-tesla-equity-offering-2016-5">http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-tesla-equity-offering-2016-5</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">I quote in part - </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Well, here you go. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">On Wednesday, before the stock market opened in New York, Goldman Sachs
analyst Patrick Archambault upgraded shares of Tesla.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Archambault put a "Buy" rating and a $250 a
share price target on the stock because of what he sees as the market's failure
to "fully [capture] the company's disruptive potential."</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">On Wednesday, after the market closed in New York, Tesla said it
would sell $2 billion worth of stock, $1.4 billion of which would be issued by
the company.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Tesla CEO Elon Musk would sell $600 million worth of
stock to meet a tax obligation related to his buying even more Tesla stock.
It's complicated. You can read about that here.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Running the book for that new stock offering? Morgan
Stanley and ... Goldman Sachs.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Now if you believe that banks — and specifically
Goldman — are bad actors, this sort of deal makes sense. You might, in this
scenario, say, "Well, of course: Goldman says nice things about Tesla and
then Tesla does a nice thing for Goldman."</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">This would, however, be a breach of what the banks
call a "Chinese Wall," or a separation of various divisions that
could come into conflict one another.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Research and investment banking are examples of
divisions that could create a conflict of interest and between which there
exists said wall — meaning that research analysts don't know who investment
banks are doing deals with and investment banks don't know what analysts think
of companies outside of published research.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">In an email to Business Insider, Goldman Sachs said:
"Our Research is independent. We followed all of our standard policies and
procedures with respect to our research publication [on Wednesday]."</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">It seems unlikely that a coordinated breach happened
here. That would be illegal and, while I'm not a criminal or a lawyer, it would
seem that the point of breaking the law is not to get caught.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">But here's what this looks like to many:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The stock upgrade is a detailed argument for why you,
the investors, should buy the shares. As a result, investors buy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">This report is delivered just as Goldman's sales
force is about to hit the phones to push $1.4 billion of those very shares for
a nice fat fee for Goldman and a dilutive hit to the shareholders.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">So then there are investors who, based on
Archambault's note, bought the shares in the morning only to learn by that
afternoon that Goldman would have a hand in diluting their newly acquired
ownership stake.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">And the popular view says Goldman knew this was going
to happen the whole time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">There's an additional potentially uglier mess if you
also think Goldman clients were told by Goldman sales-trader types not to buy
the stock on the upgrade: What did they know, and so on.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">End Quote</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Our chart – daily bars of Tesla
displaying the big volume spikes of the early April 2016 price peaks of $260 and
the subsequent decline to the Goldman pop of May 18, 2016. It seems the
investment shepherds were selling in April and the investment sheep are buying in
May.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBoc0AoblnmZCOymQItpXgNceN5gZyG3qC0txHRE3GhjDvWVqP4jvlCJlfFLBQ94LerqMXk5n5evO88nkvufGjWsT1v_Bi3bhG_JqxXFwQClyLu9x95ZWRgaPtbC1tBZtAff7rImsoom4/s1600/TSLADAY.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBoc0AoblnmZCOymQItpXgNceN5gZyG3qC0txHRE3GhjDvWVqP4jvlCJlfFLBQ94LerqMXk5n5evO88nkvufGjWsT1v_Bi3bhG_JqxXFwQClyLu9x95ZWRgaPtbC1tBZtAff7rImsoom4/s320/TSLADAY.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-48821415497610322382016-05-14T18:43:00.003-04:002016-05-14T18:43:44.275-04:00Is the Tesla Motors dream a nightmare? <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>A good item on Tesla Motors Inc. by Toronto Star
columnist David Olive</b> - <a href="http://www.pressreader.com/canada/toronto-star/20160514/281874412627633">http://www.pressreader.com/canada/toronto-star/20160514/281874412627633</a>
- “Is the Tesla excitement just magical thinking?” Olive hammers home some valid problems with
mounting losses, production questions and the debt levels. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Olive then loses credibility when he forgets to say
that Tesla cars just use energy from somewhere else – perhaps from that local
gas or coal fired power utility. Olive also makes a big mistake when he claims “the
auto industry has not changed its essentials since the advent of the internal
combustion engine in the 1880’s.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Wow – today we have radial tires, modern suspensions,
lighter weight, fuel injection, direct injection, variable valve timing, turbo-charging,
seamless shifting auto transmissions, disc breaks – airbags – I could go on. By the way
today’s internal combustion engine has almost zero emissions.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Last January auto retailer AutoNation Inc. (NYSE-AN)
- said it will trim marketing costs and vehicle inventory by about 10 percent
from year-end levels. The nation's largest new-vehicle retailer already has cut
jobs in light of increased discounting, plateauing sales and declining vehicle
margins, which combined to reduce its fourth-quarter net.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Our chart – weekly bars of Tesla above the weekly bars
of AutoNation displays a reasonable price correlation – so there is a
relationship and the January 2016 negative warning by AutoNation did impact the
Tesla share price. Note the recent Model 3 price rebound which is likely a
selling opportunity.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO5dkjj5HhyphenhyphenCmy-uwBH8r0OTqH4_iUUW8JZTevdRbikS4KBWX_seAuNRQkoxqMVWzNaSpLnSMzIoIVCTzzyMgMGa0eTTuSwSLNQLM3QzVWcre-c-uPeIONgx4r-2-ZguI43k-sqyIPIzU/s1600/TESLA.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjO5dkjj5HhyphenhyphenCmy-uwBH8r0OTqH4_iUUW8JZTevdRbikS4KBWX_seAuNRQkoxqMVWzNaSpLnSMzIoIVCTzzyMgMGa0eTTuSwSLNQLM3QzVWcre-c-uPeIONgx4r-2-ZguI43k-sqyIPIzU/s320/TESLA.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-73210137561189362212016-05-10T20:24:00.003-04:002016-05-10T20:24:46.955-04:00Investors: What to do if Trump gets in?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">As investors we need to seek out the beneficiaries of
a possible Trump presidency.</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">One choice would be to buy the companies that would
build a wall along the U.S.
Canadian boarder – to keep the Americans
out. I see that SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (SNC) printed a new 52-week high and Aecon
Group Inc. (ARE) also had an up day on good volume.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">In reality the wall strategy is a goofy idea because
neither country has the money to fund such a silly project. I guess SNC and ARE
were up for other reasons.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">A few weeks ago I wrote this item for BMO Asset
Management Inc for posting on their BMO Canadian ETF Dashboard web site – </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Begin ------------</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Bill Carrigan, CIM, Technical Analyst,
GettingTechnical.com</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Will that be guns or butter?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Summary of Recommendations:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Industrials Index ETF
(Ticker: ZIN)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Paul Anthony Samuelson was an American economist and
the first American to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. His
textbook Economics (ISBN- 0-07-0 092863-0) has become a classic in which he
states in a chapter entitled “Central Problems of Every Economic Society” that
a nation has to choose between two options when spending its finite resources.
It may buy either guns (invest in defense/military) or butter (invest in
production of goods), or a combination of both.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson used the phrase to
catch the attention of the national media, while reporting on the state of
national defense and the economy. Another use of the phrase was British Prime
Minister, Margaret Thatcher's reference in a 1976 speech that, "The
Soviets put guns over butter, but we put almost everything over guns.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">When it relates to investing – there are three
strategies. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">1. We can invest in the sector beneficiaries of guns
over butter, such as Materials, Energy, Technology and Industrials.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">2. We can invest in the sector beneficiaries of
butter over guns, such as Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples,
Health Care or Industrials.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">3. We can also invest in both because there is one
sector common to the guns and butter choices: Industrials. Investors can now
enjoy one investable product: the BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Industrials
Index ETF (ZIN), a diverse basket of cyclical companies that includes
Railroads, Aerospace, Infrastructure and Engineering Companies.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Industrials Index
ETF (ZIN) has been designed to replicate, to the extent possible, the
performance of the S&P/TSX Equal Weight Industrials Index, net of expenses.
The Fund invests in and holds the Constituent Securities of the Index in the
same proportion as they are reflected in the Index. ZIN gives investors
exposure to companies engaged in Construction and Engineering, Aerospace and
Defense, Trading Companies, Railroads, Airlines, Trucking, Industrial
Machinery, and Marine Parts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The chart below shows long-term plot of the
S&P/TSX Industrial Index, which is a reasonable replication of the
S&P/TSX Equal Weight Industrials Index. The long-term primary trend line
joins the significant lows of early 2009, mid-2011 and the recent 2016 lows –
all investment opportunities.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">End -------</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Now today I still agree with the Gums & Butter
issue but why not drill down into the sector and seek out the Aerospace and
Defense names – just in case Trump wins in November?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">In the U.S. there are lots of aerospace
& defense related companies - Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), United
Technologies Corp (UTX), Honeywell International (HON), Boeing Co/The (BA). General
Dynamics Corp (GD), Raytheon Co (RTN) and Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC). Many of
these names are at or close to new 52-week highs.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The related ETFs are the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
(ITA) and the PowerShares Aerospace & Defense Portfolio (PPA) :</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">In Canada the choices are slim with a
few thin traders – such as Magellan Aerospace (MAL) and Heroux-Devtek Inc (HRX).
We are left with CAE Inc (CAE) a liquid pure aerospace play. Our chart –
monthly of CAE displays a pending new bull cycle and a point & figure (not
included) predicts blue sky on a break over $16.50. By the way – CAE is a
component of the S&P/TSX Industrial Index</span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOSgb0W5yl49RjWUCNr5TVzhiAqXu9qTyD7Mn9GIMATTWUyNE7sewG6qI39jVLaFHPIi-4-F2jxkPiRT6JiPcsSFN0WlCGOnvZaRYuEO6EiOVtGGq1Q5a4I7lPm9rruUtG-bjRKcZXjXo/s1600/CAELONG.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOSgb0W5yl49RjWUCNr5TVzhiAqXu9qTyD7Mn9GIMATTWUyNE7sewG6qI39jVLaFHPIi-4-F2jxkPiRT6JiPcsSFN0WlCGOnvZaRYuEO6EiOVtGGq1Q5a4I7lPm9rruUtG-bjRKcZXjXo/s320/CAELONG.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-10324444634942270672016-04-26T23:56:00.002-04:002016-04-26T23:56:51.599-04:00Apple earnings disappointment no surprise:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>At the close April 26, 2016 the shares of Apple Inc</b>.
closed at about $104 and after the close the business media lead with, “Apple's
revenue falls for first time in 13 years” To the technical analyst who looks at
very long term charts – today was no surprise so let us re-visit a post of last
June 2015 - with the original chart, and I quote.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">“I see Apple Inc as built a triple top on a point
& figure chart. I love P&F charts because most of the squiggly line
guys never
use them.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Apple Inc was added to the DJII March 2015 suggesting
that Apple is in transition from a growth stock to a value stock. In other
words – the great 2001 – 2015 growth period may be over. Some past DJII growth
to value stocks - Cisco Systems added in June 2009. Bank of America and Chevron
added in February 2008, Intel and Microsoft were added in November 1999</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Honeywell was dropped from the Dow in February 2008
and has doubled in price – now a true growth winner – Alcoa also doubled in
price after being dropped in September 2013 </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Our chart – monthly of Apple
Inc displays the progressively shorter growth periods – this may cause some
momentum loss in the broader technology sector</span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHKb_lbzCVGBftwC9P0nI6092-pJzWrHuWG6YzPcxvTDLA8g7iGEbN_XwSZ09x4AAYSlPu15rP8sxkQukL1K11Rtuvg3_wO0vyI9Q2QLIvnm8L-tYq8S3uwCYQ2aOYK_H1io-nM508mIQ/s1600/AAPL.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHKb_lbzCVGBftwC9P0nI6092-pJzWrHuWG6YzPcxvTDLA8g7iGEbN_XwSZ09x4AAYSlPu15rP8sxkQukL1K11Rtuvg3_wO0vyI9Q2QLIvnm8L-tYq8S3uwCYQ2aOYK_H1io-nM508mIQ/s320/AAPL.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-17109223158151504002016-04-25T14:00:00.004-04:002016-04-25T14:00:39.144-04:00Street consensus and Buy. Hold and Sell:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>Torstar
(TS.B) seems to be a value trap at the moment.</b> They are sitting on a lot of cash –
companies sitting on cash are usually bad investments. They are tying to go
digital, the publisher is leaving, the shares are trading at multi-year lows
and out of the 5 analysts that cover the company – all 5 have a “Hold” rating
on the stock. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again - we all know that a
“hold” rating means they just don’t know.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">One
BNN contributor recently said – “Torstar is stupid cheap,”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">So
there are a lot of negatives – we have a shrinking business with no analyst
support and a fundament guy thinks the stock is “cheap”. Cheap to me means cheap
because nobody wants to own the shares. I bought some Torstar stock last week
because of all the fundamental negatives – and the one technical positive – a bounce
of the recent lows on a big (for Torstsr) volume increase. Thanks to
Stockcharts.com for the CandleGlance plot of Torstar.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM_Cz8J406i8DvcpIwrxvELtlTu2cOLYj7oFROKUiGYnA7dk1GYid2tk_uqgmM4-22ILqY_u0avvyRJfrvsvUXI2hhjwGqG_S-3H1huBLfuh1k-nWLX8Bo97-3n-nddL94ybxjCV2fZfU/s1600/TORSTAR.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM_Cz8J406i8DvcpIwrxvELtlTu2cOLYj7oFROKUiGYnA7dk1GYid2tk_uqgmM4-22ILqY_u0avvyRJfrvsvUXI2hhjwGqG_S-3H1huBLfuh1k-nWLX8Bo97-3n-nddL94ybxjCV2fZfU/s1600/TORSTAR.JPG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5311226784054647521.post-70754821934838660982016-04-22T11:31:00.001-04:002016-04-22T11:31:18.983-04:00More on the value of street consensus:<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>According
to The Wall Street Journal</b> – April 21, 2016 the Analyst Ratings on the TSX
listed Alimentation <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="OLE_LINK5">Couche-Tard</a> Inc (ATD.A) was currently
11 buys, 2 holds and no sells. Three months
ago it was 12 buys, 2 holds and no sells. We all know that a “hold” means they
just don’t know.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">A
few posts ago I observed that on BNN’s popular Market Call
shows there was a growing tendency for the callers to ask the host for the “street
consensus” in addition to the guest opinion on a particular company. The
problem is the street consensus is usually a “buy”, a “hold” and rarely a
“sell”.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">One
Market Call guest correctly described Couche-Tard to be “One of the darlings of
the TSX via growth by acquisition.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">The
fundamentals I see are based on common sense – first the stock was over loved
and over-owned and secondly when you grow by acquisition – each one has to be
bigger in order to propel the growth story..(sort of like the Valeant story)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Technically
the “B” shares are trading below both the 50 and 200 day simple moving averages,
the stock is underperforming the TSX Comp and the S&P500 and the point
& figure has peaked and the down O’s sit on key support at $55</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Our
weekly bar chart of Couche-Tard spanning about 100 weeks displays the relative
perform vs. the TSX Comp and Couche-Tard’s 40-week moving average. Clearly the street
consensus and the technical picture do not agree.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyWGu9v8igW7fjsa78a2gyFvnrycckzqenZYoxsgFC8qbbkEhjNrxA7wY_sF9egxeprG0rEhg_p0_ANwiAbz2aJonGfS6sUdDwVVuhA1vhnE6MUSW-OHN9y4UNX8KIdeCaaRARRY-jJ3c/s1600/ATDB.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyWGu9v8igW7fjsa78a2gyFvnrycckzqenZYoxsgFC8qbbkEhjNrxA7wY_sF9egxeprG0rEhg_p0_ANwiAbz2aJonGfS6sUdDwVVuhA1vhnE6MUSW-OHN9y4UNX8KIdeCaaRARRY-jJ3c/s320/ATDB.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Gettingtechnical.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10433679012281173538noreply@blogger.com2