Energy Bull Part 2

For GT blog April 30, 2008

We got some flak on our crude "Stay Close to the Exit" item of April 16, 2008

For those "must-own" energy bulls we serve up this suggestion

The natural gas play is lagging the crude oil play and so there could be some opportunity left in the gassy energy stocks - see the list below - use some caution as they have had a bounce since being introduced in our Getting Technical letter of February 12, 2008 (GT1260 Feb12, 2008)

Dow Jones

Some may say the Dow Jones Industrial average is not relevant because it contains only 30 stocks

I argue it is very relevant because the 30 stocks are the biggest and best U.S. multinationals that do business on a Global level

The Dow performance is a reflection of the Global Economy

Wow!

Timminco and Sprott

For GT blog April 23, 2008

I have several trading rules - three of which relate to Timminco


1) Use stops - I use the ten-week low price channel or a true-range stop on the weekly

2) Never buy "concept" stocks - the storey usually end badly

3) Never buy IPO's


On the stop topic - stops - both the weekly true-range and the 10-week low sit at the $15 level - so don't even think of owning the stock under this important level

On the concept topic - the Barron's item Solar Sell of April 21, 2008 is the kiss of death

On the IPO topic - the new Sprott IPO may be impacted by the Timminco fiasco - in any event good IPO's are usually gobbled up by institutions - if small investors can get it - forget it!


Timminco - weeky bar - semi-log scale with stops

Energy Bull part 2

Are you an Energy Bull - (part 2)?

If so, I assume you are fully invested

If so, I assume you plan to sell - sometime - in order to preserve those profits

Another approach could be to insure that energy exposure against sudden nasty corrections and buy some insurance

The HED Energy Bear + ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees, expenses, distributions, brokerage commissions and other transaction costs, that endeavour to correspond to two times (200%) the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index.


Bill Carrigan



The Energy Bear leads the Crude Bear

Energy bull?

Are you an Energy Bull?

If so I assume you enjoyed the big advance (cycle #1) from 1999 - 2000 a gain of 450 per cent

Did you miss that? OK

I assume you enjoyed the big advance (cycle #2) from 2002 - 2005 a gain of 300 per cent

Did you miss that? OK

You can try to make money on the current advance (cycle #3) - good luck with that and stay close to that EXIT sign


Bill Carrigan

GE

General Electric Co, which is regarded as a bellwether of big business, said its financial-services divisions have been challenged by the slowing U.S. economy and difficult capital markets. The company, whose orbit extends into entertainment, consumer and industrial manufacturing, finance and health care, also lowered projections for the entire year.

As of 11:30 to-day GE was down 11% trading at $32.60 on huge volume

Here is the test

GE can save the DOW if it can hold at long term support above $32

If we save the DOW we save the modern financial world

If GE recovers above the $35 level over the next ten days - VERY BULLISH!

Bill Carrigan

Revisit BBD.B

For GT blog April 04, 2008

The Measured Move

Measured moves in stocks are found within trends and are price projections for continuation patterns. A measured move is the distance from a reaction extreme to the next price target. The premise of a measured move is that prices will move in equal increments. This basis for setting price targets in technical analysis is used with chart patterns such as flag patterns and pennant patterns.

The measured move often helps to gauge what levels price may reach when trading continuation patterns. Measured moves are beneficial when anticipating profit objectives and price levels where to exit a trade.

Our first upside target on Bombardier is $8