Crude

One way to find the crude Tipping Point

The crude TIPPING POINT defined:

The crude tipping point is the price level that when crossed, will have a negative impact on not only the U.S. economy but perhaps the Global Economy.

Answer – monitor the Dow Transports – as we can see below the Transports seemed Ok with $80 crude last July 2007. Note the recent rally hit a wall at the old top as crude topped $130

The Transports will not tolerate crude over $130 – the tipping point

Bill Carrigan

General Electric

For GT Blog May 27, 2008

A look at Dow component General Electric

Forty years ago the rule was – what is good for General Motors was good for the Dow

Twenty years ago the rule was – what is good for IBM was good for the Dow
(remember when IBM was called Big Blue)

Now the rule is – what is good for General Electric is good for the Dow

We do not like GE under $31.75 – a bad omen

Question - What is wrong with GE?

Answer – I don’t care, run first, ask questions latter.

Bill Carrigan

Dow

A few questions from Dr. Dow

Is your favourite stock going nowhere?

Is it a little harder to find stocks that go up?

Do you lately feel like a salmon swimming up-stream?

Have the stock gods turned their back on you?

Well chin up - its not you - its the markets

We are in the beginning of an intermediate cyclic down trend. You see the intermediate stock cycle normally spans about 24 weeks trough to trough. The bull skew is about 16 weeks and the bear skew is about 8 weeks giving us a target low of mid July 2008

Caveat - cycle work is good for time and duration - it sucks on magnitude

The Intermediate Stock Cycle

Dow Transports

A new all time high for the Dow Transports - just before a reversal sent the group back under the important 5400 level

A possible bull trap
Normally a one-day reversal is not enough to call a significant juncture - BUT - this reversal occurred at the threshold of an all-time high

Travel & Aerospace

For GT Blog May15, 2008

On The Travel & Aerospace Theme

Below is the technical picture on Bombardier with the upside price targets.

Note the huge inverse head & shoulder pattern

Normally we are quantitative and technical guys but we now serve up some fundamentals on Bombardier for those CFA’s out there

So far this year I can’t find a parking spot at any GO Station parking lots – seems commuters are being forced out of their cars by high gas prices

We think this is good for Bombardier – OK were done

Other Travel and Aerospace

CAE, Honeywell, Onex

Bill Carrigan

Disclosure –My Family and I own BBD.B

MLY

Still bullish on commodities?

They scare the hell out of us - too late for the coal stocks - too late for the energy stocks

Gold is falling apart

We need more laggards - those things overlooked by crude bulls

We ran a price/volume filter and found a good looking chart

Take a look at TSX listed Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation (MLY)

We always get excited when we see an inverse Head & Shoulder reversal pattern

Caveat: Disclosure - the author is long the Sprott Molybdenum warrants.

Confession: This is a bad way to play the stock - I should have just bought the stock.

More Energy

Still bullish on energy?

Too late for the coal stocks - so why not look at the energy laggards such as uranium?
You uranium bellwethers are Cameco (CCO) and Uranium Participation (U) - the buy signal was confirmed when Uranium Participation broke above resistance @ $9 - see chart below

Dow Theory

Sell in May and go away?

We at Getting Technical are followers of Dow Theory because of its long term history of making correct calls on bull and bear markets

We are currently in a Dow Theory "sell" mode but some argue we have just got a Dow Theory "buy" signal

Don't buy it!

More on that latter

At the moment the Dow is having difficulty pushing through resistance at the 13000 level.

Will the Dow falter here? For the answer count the vertical ROC% bars from the January low to date - about 15 - a very mature intermediate cycle

Stay tuned - Bill Carrigan

Crystallex

For GT blog May 02, 2008

Crystallex dropped like a rock on Wednesday April 30 (not shown in the chart) after the company released a statement that put doubt in investor minds about the future exploration of Crystallex's Las Cristinas mine in Venezuela.

Crystallex had become a "torpedo" stock

There are few defences from the torpedo - one is to diversify and the other is to use technical analysis as a tool for signs of smart money leaving the stock.

Keep in mind that Crystallex trades in Toronto and New York and so your best option when charting is to go where the volume is – New York.

Note the “good news” day up bar of February 28, 2008 to the left which is accompanied by a high volume bar. This was a good technical day with the rising price confirmed by higher volume. The positive news of the day was a statement by the company carried by Briefing.com recapping the progress for the Las Cristinas gold project in Venezuela.

Note now the price spike in the middle of our chart. On March 24, 2008 the stock opened with a gap at $2.68 and traded as high as $2.83 before suddenly reversing to close near the low of the day at $2.35 on heavy volume.

Crystallex had put in a reversal day which is a one-day chart pattern where prices sharply reverse during a trend on larger than average volume. There was no news to justify this activity. For some unknown reason – someone was selling. Was it you?