For GT Blog March 06, 2009

When the going gets tough - it is time for the technical analyst to table the ultimate technical weapon

The ultimate technical weapon is held in reserve until it the time is right to spring it. This could be the time, a time when a global recession threatens to be come a global depression. This according to the economists who look at the numbers on industrial capacity, non farm payrolls, housing starts, U.S. GDP and the Chicago PMI.

The ultimate technical weapon? -

The long term primary trend line - (always use a semi-log scale)

So, is the S&P500 a buy at 1600 or a buy at 680?


A Picture is worth 1000 words or (10,000 economist words)

For GT Blog March 04, 2009

Time for a BNN flash-back

We go back to a BNN Market Call visit on or about July 30, 2007 - I like many guests on BNN made some bad calls, but we can also get it right – this was an easy call.

The Dow had just popped above 14,000 for the first time ever and the future was so bright we all wore sunglasses

And why not, Potash was over $220, Commerce just under $100, CP at $87, Canadian Tire at $90, Manulife at $40 and Teck-Cominco was over $50. All was good except many technical analysts I know saw a problem.

Below is the graphics and comment Getting Technical sent to BNN on July 30, 2007 for a market call segment – displaying the North American financial indices violating their March 2007 lows as identified by the two support – resistance lines

I quote

“The Big Financial stocks are not participating in the current Dow Advance
Bearish implications – North American Financial Sectors violate the Feb 2007 lows”

For GT Blog March 03, 2009

Cycle Summation

All price movements are the simple addition of all active cycles. For example, a 20 day cycle is made up of two 10 day cycles and the 10 day cycles is made up of two 5 day cycles, etc.

All price patterns are formed by the interaction of two or more different cycles.

The longer monthly cycle maps out the longer term dominant theme and the weekly or intermediate cycle maps out the shorter trading theme

There are usually three weekly cycles in the bull skew of the monthly cycle

There are usually two weekly cycles in the bear skew of the monthly cycle

Cisco Sys Inc- the next weekly up should introduce the next long term bull