For GT Blog October 28, 2009

Don Vialoux has removed me from his mailing list in reaction to my CSTA rant last week. I will miss Don's analysis because I have an interest in the TSX listed Tim Hortons Inc. (THI) which would hopefully pass three of Don’s tests – seasonality – fundamentals and the technicals. I am weak on the seasonal and fundamental issues so I will give it a try – some feedback would help

Seasonality

Seasonal affective disorder (SAD) takes its toll on millions of North Americans each year, a condition that leads to depression, anxiety, and chronic fatigue as the winter months ensue. It's one reason why people migrate to sunnier quarters during winter season – or in the alternative remain in Canada and eat more donuts.

Fundamentals

A simple observation of the Hortons’ drive through any morning clearly shows that Canadians love their morning coffee and donuts. When the Hortons’ medium coffee cup is examined for volume it is clearly less than the McDonald's medium cup – at about the same price – this tells me Hortons’ make more money per serving – (personally I like the McDonald’s coffee)

The Technicals

The chart below displays a huge symmetrical triangle which tends to precede a major move – up or down. The lower study is a relative analysis test which is showing recent improvement in THI vs the TSX Composite. Hortons is also a “safe” place to hide when investors seek to leave the riskier assets – watch for the break to the upside

For GT Blog October 25, 2009

I am still done with the CSTA in spite of Don Vialoux’s opinion that my comments were “over the top and not in (my) best interests.”

The reality is the CSTA is the only professional organisation that allows industry professional members to use the resources of their organisation (the CSTA) for the purpose of soliciting, urging, requesting, enticing or otherwise promoting their services to individual investors.

I know because I attended many public CSTA promotions at various financial forums and witnessed CSTA members pimping their services to private investors who were initially curious about the benefits of membership. A classic bait and switch technique.

The foxes ambushing the chickens

Log on to www.advocis.ca - The Financial Advisors Association of Canada - a platform of knowledge, advocacy, community and protection enhancing the professionalism of financial advisors and planners in the best interest of the consumer. Only industry professionals can be members - scan the list of directors – no contact info – with the exception of name@advocis.ca

Scan the list of CSTA directors – the contact info is directed to their personal business enterprise. Some of the directors email reply names are almost egregious – not suitable for a professional organisation - some examples "Wi$eMoney.ca" and “analyzingmarkets.com” – only one director has non predatory contact information - Deborah Shaman, Ottawa Regional Director - ottawa@csta.org

The foxes ambushing the chickens

One would wonder why an industry pro who may - or may not have any accreditation or reputation of being a technical analyst would worm their way onto the list of CSTA directors. There can be only two answers – firstly it is an easy way to add some impressive stuff to their resumes – something like “Billy Bob is past President (or) former director of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA)”.

Secondly why would a director want to post all of their professional contact information on a busy web site?

The foxes ambushing the chickens

This predatory behaviour only adds to the public perception that technical analysis is “voodoo science” or “lunatic fringe” activity. The fact that holding a CMT does little to impress the regulators or the financial services industry as to accreditation is a serious problem for the profession. That is why some CMT’s will also acquire a CFA or CIM to ensure employment opportunity

Now before all you CMTs out there complain - go to Advocis / find an advisor http://www.advocis.ca/content/find-ad-form.aspx and look at the search - Financial designation options CFA, CFP, CH.F.C, CIM, CLU, CMP, R.F.P, REBC, RHU and TEP – no CMT found here

There is more – look at IIROC the list CE Accredited Courses for Cycle 4 (2009-2011) Professional Development - IIROC is the national self-regulatory organization which oversees all investment dealers and trading activity on debt and equity marketplaces in Canada - the link:
http://cecap.ca/cy4//en/index.php?pageNum_pd_c3_members=0&totalRows_pd_c3_members=66&mod=providers_pdc3&cyc=04&cat_type=PD

No mention of the CSTA here but one can get 4 credits by watching a presentation by Thomson Reuters Markets Academy

Don I know you were – and I quote - “sad about Bill’s comments for a number of reasons: The comments were not specific. More information about his concerns are needed by the CSTA board before it can respond.”

So there you go – specifically yours – Bill Carrigan

For GT Blog October 22, 2009

I am done with the CSTA

The CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical Analysts) claim their mission to be “To promote Technical Analysis at both academic and professional levels, through education and the sharing of knowledge with the community of technical analysts and the investment industry, and through the establishment and fostering of the highest standards.”

When I became a member several years ago I assumed the CSTA to be a professional organization on a par with peers such as Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, the CFA Institute, the Financial Planners Standards Council and The Financial Advisors Association of Canada (Advocis)

Dig this mission statement from Advocis, “The Financial Advisors Association of Canada provides a platform of knowledge, advocacy, community and protection enhancing the professionalism of financial advisors and planners in the best interest of the consumer.”

The bottom line, the private investor is the direct beneficiary of these professional organizations because they know - in the long run – when investors are well served – their profession is also well served – everybody wins

I have in the past made several public presentations on behalf of the CSTA with a view to encourage industry pros and private investors to incorporate some form of technical analysis into their investment strategy. My last presentation was at the June 2009 CSTA annual meeting in Toronto.

I have always held myself out to be an educator and not salesman looking for new business - Unfortunately over the past few years the CSTA has morphed into a shill or platform for industry salesmen to fish for new clients - the board of directors is littered with salesmen who seek to use the organisation as a platform to promote their own self interests

So here is my challenge to the CSTA - a new rule

No member of the CSTA shall use the organisation to promote their own self-serving agenda - this would forbid industry professionals from using the CSTA platform for interaction with private investors and the business media to promote their own personal business enterprises

Do this and I bet one-third of the directors would resign

Do this and I would reconsider my membership

Bill Carrigan