For GT Blog October 30, 2008

This goes in the "I can't believe I said that file."

Follow this link to re-visit my last appearance on BNN on July 3, 2008

http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call/july-2008/market-call-july-3-2008/#clip64272

I reminded the viewers we were in a bear market and made comments on commodity sensitive stocks and the current credit crisis.

- I set crude's "tipping point" at $130
- Energy stocks have topped - the stocks are ignoring higher crude prices
- Commodity stocks such as AGU & POT are over loved - too many bulls
- The bad news in the financials will drag on for 6-months
- It will end when a major institution goes bust

Bill Carrigan
Disclosure: This is a self-serving, shameless and conflicted piece of self-promotion

For GT Blog October 25, 2008

Technical analysts want to know three things

- Is the price in an up trend?
- Is the price in a down trend?
- When will it reverse or change trend?

A reversal pattern can be bearish or bullish, depending upon whether it appears at the end of an uptrend (bearish engulfing pattern) or a downtrend (bullish engulfing pattern).

The first day is characterized by a small body, followed by a day whose body completely engulfs the previous day's body.

At the close Friday October 24, 2008 many gold stocks completed a bullish engulfing pattern

Candlestick charts provide graphic reversal patterns. The Candlestick Pattern below is a good example of a Bullish Engulfing Pattern – note how the white body “engulfs” the previous day – a small down day black body

Bill Carrigan

For GT Blog October 23, 2008

There is always a bull market out there - somewhere

Observation

In the capital markets when something goes bad there is an opposite reaction elsewhere and something else goes good

Our Bullion / Gold Stock model below should be another popular model

The last signal was a sell-gold-stocks and buy-bullion call in January 2008

The steep advance on our RA departure analysis suggests the bearish stampede out of the gold stocks is over-done


Bill Carrigan

For GT Blog October 20, 2008

There is always a bull market out there - somewhere

Observation

In the capital markets when something goes bad there is an opposite reaction elsewhere and something else goes good

We are getting requests for our sell-this and buy-that models and we plan to publish them more frequently

Our own Crude / Energy Stocks model below should be another popular model

Caveat - the current return of the energy stocks to out perform is a bear market rally that could run through December 2008 - enjoy but be prepared to exit the group

Bill Carrigan

For GT Blog October 17, 2008

There is always a bull market out there - somewhere

Observation

In the capital markets when something goes bad there is an opposite reaction elsewhere and something else goes good

We are getting requests for our sell-this and buy-that models and we plan to publish them more frequently

The Gold / US Dollar model below should be another popular model

Bill Carrigan

For GT Blog October 13, 2008

More on Crisis – What Crisis?

Well - you have two choices

Buy some gold bars, and hide in mommy’s basement with your latest scary issue of the Globe’s Report on Business

Or:

You can look for stuff that was sold by investors who now are hiding in mommy’s basement

The TSX Information Technology sector has been sold down to the Head & Shoulder neckline built through the bottom of 2002-2003

For GT Blog October 10, 2008

Our Own Bull - Own Bear signal is still at a negative 3 Own Bear mode

Important - this model is not intended for speculation but rather to apply - form time to time a portfolio insurance product.

A portfolio that is insured or protected (to some degree) from market risk when non-correlated assets are added to the mix of components.

This strategy avoids the expense of selling and then buying back multiple stock positions.


Bill Carrigan

For GT Blog October 08, 2008

The problem with gold is that from time-to-time it trades like a commodity and then trades like a safe-haven currency

18-months ago safe-havens were the big U.S. multi-nationals - this pushed the DOW to all time highs

6-months ago safe-havens were the U.S. and Canadian T-Bonds

Now gold is the latest safe-haven and our chart below illustrates the transition of gold from a commodity to a currency

On August 29, 2008 our relative analysis study Binary_RA6 has flashed an "own gold" signal

Bill Carrigan

GT Blog October 06, 2008

The three stages of a bear market

Disbelief - the 2006 US housing bubble is brushed off as an isolated event - the housing stocks collapse but the broader indices advance

Worry - the Sub-Prime mortgage "problem" widens and in 2007 the Financial stocks sink - the financial crisis spreads into Global markets and the FED steps in

Panic - investors fear to own any asset and sell at any price to raise cash - The activity over the past 6 trading sessions is the panic

Strategy - do not sell now and STOP WATCHING BUSINESS TELEVISION!


Bill Carrigan

*Reminder there will be a GT seminar held on Tuesday October the 21st in Oakville. For more information click here http://gettingtechnical.com/07_seminars/index.shtml

GT Blog October 1 2008

Today we are looking for stocks that displayed strength during the Monday panic sell off. Our definition of strength is the ability to post a Tuesday close above the close of last Friday.

The filter was run and 46 Stocks were found. The stock prices had to have been $2.25 or greater to make the cut.