This goes in the "I can't believe I said that file."
Follow this link to re-visit my last appearance on BNN on July 3, 2008
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call/july-2008/market-call-july-3-2008/#clip64272
I reminded the viewers we were in a bear market and made comments on commodity sensitive stocks and the current credit crisis.
- I set crude's "tipping point" at $130
- Energy stocks have topped - the stocks are ignoring higher crude prices
- Commodity stocks such as AGU & POT are over loved - too many bulls
- The bad news in the financials will drag on for 6-months
- It will end when a major institution goes bust
Bill Carrigan
Disclosure: This is a self-serving, shameless and conflicted piece of self-promotion
Follow this link to re-visit my last appearance on BNN on July 3, 2008
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call/july-2008/market-call-july-3-2008/#clip64272
I reminded the viewers we were in a bear market and made comments on commodity sensitive stocks and the current credit crisis.
- I set crude's "tipping point" at $130
- Energy stocks have topped - the stocks are ignoring higher crude prices
- Commodity stocks such as AGU & POT are over loved - too many bulls
- The bad news in the financials will drag on for 6-months
- It will end when a major institution goes bust
Bill Carrigan
Disclosure: This is a self-serving, shameless and conflicted piece of self-promotion
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4 comments:
I remember that call, I had a bunch of COS.UNs and ECAs and CNQs, it was a very good heads up, it made me think about tightening stops and when the trends broke, I was gone.
Very good call, remember you said something like ringing the bell on that sale or something to that effect :-)
There's nothing wrong with shameless self-advertising. When you're right, you need to flaunt it! But when you are wrong, you have to face the music too.
I think energy rise helped awaken people to the problems of high home prices too. Now with any technical rally, do you think commodities will trade higher as well?
I think commodities related stocks should rally with the broader indices through December. I believe that this is a bear market rally in the commodity sector which could provide opportunities to reduce exposure to the sector.
Bill Carrigan
Many and many pundits have been calling for hyper-inflation, or stagflation, or whatever-flation due to bailouts and other measures taken by the central banks. But that is not the message of the market, market does not seem to be concerned with inflationary pressures right now. Just a look at mireable performance of gold should make that apparent. All that was keeping it was bad credit situation.
For as long as the market perception of future inflationary forces is not changed, commodities may have a hard time doing another shock and awe.
A simple basket of commodities measured against a simple basket of consumer goods should keep a good watch on inflationary pressures as perceived by the market.
If one wants to get fancy, one can monitor future contracts at a number of intervals into the future for any signs of a sustained contango
last time, oil was the driver and leader of all other commodities, that role may be played again whenever market starts to price in future inflationary concerns.
Markets may not get it right, still, I'd rather argue against main stream pundits and not against the market.
I know grain and oil are different than Photonic Amplifiers, but the whole thing so much reminds me of JDS Uniphase and how it was a great buy (for demand that was surely to come) all the way into oblivion.
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