Tuesday, September 22, 2009

For GT Blog September 22, 2009

Let’s listen in on an advisor – client conversation

Advisor: Wow this market is really strong!
Client: How strong is it?
Advisor: It is so strong none of the O’Leary funds have made a new 52-week low since last July.

I have been a bull since the lows of November 2008 when some important stocks such as IBM, Intel & Home Depot bottomed and later followed by the March lows of just about all of the major stock indices on the planet. We are now entering the seventh month of rising stock prices and not a day goes by when I am asked for technical evidence confirming the current bull.

Most bullish technicians will point to important leadership such as the Financial, Technology and Industrial sectors posting new 10-month highs followed closely by the Materials only 5% away from a new 52-week high. This along with the failure of the bears to take the market to new lows since March.

Last Monday I chaired a conference call with the Union Securities wealth management team who for the most part have enjoyed the 2009 bull market. We were once again reviewing the evidence to support our bullish stance when out of the blue one of the advisors asked a question about the wealth management companies

I had a moment of clarity – yes the wealth managers lead and I had overlooked these important bellwethers. The table below is a list of publicly traded Canadian wealth managers sorted by time from their last 52-week low. Half of the list bottomed in 2008 after peaking in mid 2006 and 2007 – I rest my case and kudos to the Union guy.

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