Almost every stock component in the Dow Industrials is a beneficiary of the global growth story. China grows a new Greece every year. A recent CNBC commercial has this wise tip, “opportunities don’t come gift wrapped, they come in storms.” Did you profit from the storms of 1973-1974, 1986, 1998, 2000-2002, 2008 and last summer?
Enough fundamentals, our chart today is the daily closes of the Dow Jones Industrials plotted above the daily closes of the Nasdaq Composite spanning that nasty May – August mini-bear. Note the highest recovery peaks that followed the August lows. Now look at to-days close – clearly above their prior highs. Higher highs mean advances. Just for more technical support look at the S&P500, Dow Transports and most of the SPDR sectors – all except SPDR Materials above the prior rally peaks. For more technical evidence take a look at CNR and UNP – both back above the 200 day MA.
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8 comments:
I recently emailed Howard Green and asked him if he could get through just one show without using the term " Lehman like moment"
Hi Bill, been a fan for awhile. In your previous writings you define a bear market by the S&P500 posting a new 52W low within a 26 week window. How do the recent Aug and Oct lows relate to that and going forward? If we resolve that we are not in a bear market, in another writing you say there are three phases to bull market. Assuming the current bull started in March 2009 is still playing out, which phase do you think we are in or entering? Thank you.
Hi Bill, You hit the nail on the head! Everybody should realize that business television is basically producing a lot of stories and commentaries to fill time between commercials. This is not an easy task. So they have to create stories and repeat so called news as often as necessary to fill all these time slots. Some parts are good and valuable to investors, others are just hot air or B.S. The listener has to figure out what's what. Many of the 'experts' are in fact high-priced sales people. One should be very skeptical and consider business television as entertainment.
I agree with you funny BNN comment. It is an absolute joke how they go on and on about how bad the Euro and Greek thing is. A normal thinking person would assume there will be some resolution to this. But the doom and gloomers assume that the leaders there will let the entire Euro economy crumble. I don't watch BNN only when I hear Bill Carrigan is a guest but even then I only watch the Web version so I don't have to listen to any other babble on BNN
I have to hand it to you Bill. You've been right about some key market turning points over the past few years. Keep up your thorough, disciplined and objective technical analysis. Shawn
To John from Barrie
When Howard Green did Market Call he treated technical analysis is voodoo
BC
To Trading Student
My studies indicate a bear should post a new (closing – weekly preferred) low within a 26-week window and in Sept the Dow did not actually break the Aug 8-9 lows. The March 2009 bull ended in April 2011 and we have had a short 6-month mini-bear – this is not the rare 1984, 1987 & 1992 were mini-bears
We are now beginning a new bull through at least early 2012
BC
Hello to Manfred, dh12 & Shawn
Too many investors watch too much TV and this includes their advisors – most of them I talk to have no recollection of the prior day’s trading – I just don’t get it
BC
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