About 4-weeks ago I explained Cisco’s Secular Bear that began in early 2000 and is now into year 12 which is the completion of three shorter bull and bear cycles which is a business cycle of about 40 months discovered in the 1920s by Joseph Kitchin. A secular bull will contain about seven of the shorter bull and bear Kitchin cycles and a secular bear will contain about three of the shorter bull and bear Kitchin cycles.
A pending 4th Kitchin cycle is just getting underway and should drive CSCO up and out of the secular bear – in effect introducing a new secular bull or an “Echo” Global Tech Boom. We can now assume what is good for Cisco is good for the broader technology sector and a look at the NASDAQ Comp seems to confirm my analysis with the index just to-day breaking to an eleven year high. We need to own the QQQ’s or a basket of names like CISCO, Intel, Microsoft, eBay and Apple. Canadian dollar accounts could enjoy the TSX listed BMO ZQQ.
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2 comments:
Outstanding call on US technology and the broad US market.
Things aren't looking so great for the TSX though. Where do you see it heading over the next 6 to 12 months?
Shawn
Hi Bill, coincidentally the gold secular bull market has run 12 years. Would the Kitchen cycles suggest that it is completing and acts inversely to technology sector?
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