One of my favourite BNN personalities
is Frances Horodelski who according to BNN has been following markets for over
30 years, including 25 years with two of Canada's largest investment dealers.
Her career has spanned research, portfolio advice, investment banking and
international strategy. She also holds the designation of Chartered Financial
Analyst.
Anyway aside from all that I just like
her common sense delivery – but I think the bearish guests have seduced her
into the bearish camp. I do know Francis respects technical analysis and so I
am posting two important charts that clearly deliver a bullish spin.
The first chart is the weekly iShares
TLT which is a measure of fear – the higher the price, the greater the fear and
so we need to see the TLT to roll over to confirm a shift to equities. Our
chart displays a bearish rising wedge or diagonal triangle. The rising wedge is
rare and very deadly – this is the only pattern that when identified I will
sell into.
The
second chart needs little explanation – the NYSE advance / decline line which is
a measure the breadth of a stock market advance or decline. The AD line tracks
the net difference between advancing and declining issues. This study has been
around for generations and like point & figure is ignored by the younger technical
analysts who prefer the flashy MACD and Stochastic lines. However this little
used study usually leads the price and so when the A/D line beaks to all time
highs – I get impressed
Posts
4 comments:
bill, a single division of corp bonds to treasuries has been a good indicator of market appetite for or against risk for a long time ;-)
now, if rates are really, secularly on the rise
then, those life insurers who have just left the dog house will become very interesting, n'est pas?
There is also a longer term wedge pattern in teh S&P 500 starting in 07/09/2011 so which triangle are we to believe that one or the TLT one. Both contradict each other
Hi Piazzi
It is for that reason I do like the lifeco's Bill C
Hi dh12
Good observation in wedges - but there is a difference between the TLT & the S&P500 - I should do a post on this - Bill C
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