If I had to produce a technical
analysis exam – I would only ask one question: When looking at a bar chart what
scale do you use? Pick one.
1- Linear Scale Always
2- Semi log Scale Always
3- It don’t matter
4- Up Trends use Linear Scale – and - Down
Trends use Semi Log Scale
5- Up Trends use Semi Log Scale – and -
Down Trends use Linear Scale
I and many other experienced technical analysts
will always go with #2 Semi Log Scale Always. If you are a business media
reporter you may choose #1 so as not to confuse your reader / viewers,If you are selling mutual funds you may
chose #4 because the up-trends look bigger than the down-trends and If you are an
investor advocate you may chose #5 because the up-trends look smaller than the
down-trends
If you pick #3 you are likely to be an
accountant or, a financial planner
This is a repeat of an Apple Inc item on
chart scale selection I did 2-yers ago – only the charts have been up-dated:
“Much has been said about the recent
advance in the shares of Apple Inc. with the big focus on the February to March
non-stop run from $400 to $600. Now with Apple paying a dividend there are views
on a transition of Apple from a growth company into a value cash cow that will
spin of cash to the shareholders, A few days ago on business TV a technical
analyst referred to the recent advance to be “parabolic” and warned of a
probable nasty correction – see chart below.”
And:
“The technical analyst made a common
error – typical in the industry in that he is using the incorrect scale. The
rule is if the price data in the window doubles – use a semi log scale. Linear
scales are OK for TV and newspapers but not OK for proper trend analysis.
Our second Apple chart below clearly
displays Apple in a defined secular advance within the center of a long term
growth channel. The so-called parabolic run has vanished.”
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