Back
on a blog post October 11, 2011 - I explained divergence
to be a condition that occurs when two lines on a chart move in opposite
directions vertically. A technician will traditionally look for divergence
between a stock's direction relative to the direction of a technical study such
as a price oscillator or the MACD.
Divergence can also be observed when
doing inter-market studies such as gold vs. the gold stocks, a large cap index
vs. a small cap index or price vs. volume. There are two kinds of divergences:
positive and negative which can be also described as a bull or bear setup
Our chart today is the daily closes –
last Friday - of crude (WTI) plotted above the daily closes of the US dollar
index as replicated by the PowerShares ETF (UUP). The technical assumption here
is that the two have an inverse relationship. So, when the UUP prints a new
trading high at (B) relative to the old high at (A) - we expect the crude price
to print a new low at (B) relative to the old low at (A). Clearly this did not
occur – note the higher crude low at (B) which is a positive divergence
condition creating a bull setup signal for WTI crude. Keep in mind this is a
daily or short term signal and short term trend reversal studies can generate
false signals.
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