Cisco’s Secular Bear began in early 2000 and is now into year 12 which is displayed in the very long term chart. Note also the shorter Kitchin Cycle which is a short business cycle of about 40 months discovered in the 1920s by Joseph Kitchin.
These are noted as the cycles (1), (2) and (3) in the lower plot
The pending 4th cycle should drive CSCO up and out of the secular bear – in effect introducing a new secular bull or an “Echo” Global Tech Boom. The first technology boom and bust was mostly confined to the English speaking countries. A pending “Echo” technology boom should be a global event with the survivors of the first technology boom and bust being the beneficiaries. Now what is good for Cisco is good for the broader technology sector, and so we need to monitor CSCO to see if the pending break above $20 will be the beginning of another secular bull that could drive the stock up and out of that 12-year period of price congestion.
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