All clear according to the financial sector

During the great 2007-2008 financial crisis the shares of asset manager / investment dealer Canaccord Genuity Group Inc  (CF) peaked at $27.50 in mid 2006 and bottomed at $2.87 in mid 2008. During the same crisis the shares of asset manager / investment dealer GMP Capital Inc. (GMP) peaked at $28.75 in mid 2006 and bottomed at $3.03 in mid 2008. In both examples these were stunning losses - in the order of 90%

The experienced technical analyst (the older guys) will track the asset managers or financial related issuers because they tend the broader equity markets. Also in Canada we had the August 2007 failure of Coventree Inc. and the Dundee Bank ABCP 2007 panic. In the U.S. we had the March 2007 collapse of New Century Financial Corporation, an obscure real estate investment trust that originated mortgage loans in the United States through its operating subsidiaries. In a publication dated February 13, 2007, cycle expert Ian Notley predicted "Mortgage Lenders / Financials: Cyclic tops and bears are originating."

Our chart today is that of Canaccord plotted above GMP Capital (weekly data) clearly displaying breakouts up and out of symmetrical triangles – note also the 5-wave count in the triangle – a bullish sign for the broader equity markets   

Opportunity in the TSX Energy laggards:

Did you miss the recent rebound in the TSX energy sector? The Shares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund (XEG) is a basket of 53 stocks related to the energy sector to include the oily producers, the gassy producers, the oil field service companies and the integrated producer / refiners. The oil field service companies (Energy Equipment & Services) is only 7.28% of the sector by weight – but no energy bull ran run without participation from this group as listed below

Calfrac Well Services Ltd       CFW

Canadian Energy Services     CEU

Enerflex Ltd.                            EFX

Ensign Energy Services Inc   ESI

Mullen Group Ltd.                    MTL

Pason Systems Inc                PSI

Precision Drilling Corporation PD

Savanna Energy Services      SVY

Secure Energy Services Inc.  SES

ShawCor Ltd                           SCL

Trican Well Service Ltd          TCW

Trinidad Drilling Ltd.                TDG

Note that CFW, PSI, PD, SES and TDG have just printed new 52 week highs

The chart displays two laggards in the oil field service companies group - Savanna Energy Services (SVY) and Trican Well Service Ltd (TCW) – both just rebounding up from a rising 40 week moving average – could be a low risk way to play.

ShawCor Ltd. My one and only stock pick

As usual I looked at the new 52 week high / low list for clues as to where the money is going – and once again energy stocks dominate the TSX 52 week high list.

ShawCor Ltd (SCL) stands out for several reasons - it is also at an all-time high, it is not well known, it is in the right space (energy infrastructure), the technical picture is bullish with positive money flow and a youthful bull cycle just underway. Even better – I don’t own it so my opinion is free of conflict and self-serving bias.