Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Most market timers are out of time:

As you know – many of the broader Global stock indices are at or close to all-time highs. We at Getting Technical conclude that any attempt to time the market is a failed strategy. Investors who use fully invested longer term models do better than investors who over-trade or market time. Investors who use fully invested dominant theme models do better than investors who over-trade or market time. Our focus will remain on the Global, TSX models and Dominant Theme investing

At Getting Technical our historical market studies dictate that bear markets print a lower low within a rolling 26 to 30 week time window. The TSX timing model displayed is based on a simple 26 week price channel.    .

Strategy - Investors should remain fully invested during a “buy” and then go to a 10 to 15% cash position during a “sell” signal. The last “buy” on the TSX60 (23.49) was signalled on May 27, 2016 at 20.82 on the index.

Monday, January 30, 2017

What is going on?

I see last week I see most of the base metal miners (to include Cameco) all trading at or close to new 52-week highs.

Some of the names – Capstone Mining, First Quantum, Hudbay Minerals, Lundin Mining and Teck Resources. We know there is no exchange traded fund for this small group and we know the TSX has dropped the Mines & Metals Index – so we need a clone or proxy to participate

I note that when I was on BNN Market Call Last June with MDI at $7.01 a said – “This is basically the canary in the mineshaft for the mining space. The miners have done really well, so this is the major way to play the recovery and resurgence of interest in the mining sector.”

Since then – not one quest has mentioned the name

Saturday, September 24, 2016

What is with Info-Tech?

I see last week the TSX listed iShares S&P/TSX Info Tech ETF (XIT) traded up to close at perhaps an all-time high. The XIT, according to the manager - seeks long-term capital growth by replicating the performance of the S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index, net of expenses.

Years ago the sector (index) was dominated by Nortel – now the sector is capped and has matured and broadened out to hold about 20 names to include the likes of CGI GROUP INC (GIB.A), CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INC. (CSU), OPEN TEXT CORP (OTC), BLACKBERRY LTD (BB) and DH CORP (DH).

Technically we know the technology sector is economy sensitive and so the current strength of the XIT is very bullish for the broader markets. Our chart is the weekly bars of the XIT – with the related 40 week simple moving average - plotted above the TSX 60 Index – in this case the clone iShares (XIU).

Note the price is above a rising 40-wk MA. The lower study is a ratio, or spread smoothed by a 20-week simple moving average. Note the out perform through 2014 and 2015 – a short under perform and now the recent return to out perform.