Monday, January 28, 2008

Sector MOM Summation

We identify the intermediate stock cycle using Sector MOM Summation - weekly data

Sector Jan 25, 08
MOM Rank
iShares CDN Gold XGD 13.00
iShares CDN Materials XMA 4.95
TSX Utilities -4.21
iShares CDN S&P/TSX60 XIU -5.20
iShares CDN Energy XEG -6.06
iShares CDN Income Trust XTR -6.77
TSX Health Care -7.81
iShares CDN Financial XFN -7.83
TSX Consumer Staples -7.86
iShares CDN Technology XIT -8.08
TSX CDN Mid Cap -8.66
TSX Industrials -8.86
iShares CDN Small Cap XCS -10.48
TSX Telecommunications -11.62
TSX Consumer Discretionary -13.55
TSX Diversified Metals & Mining -17.41

Total Summation -106.45 ** Record low since Dec 2004

Observation - intermediate cycle rally through February 2008

Wednesday, January 23, 2008



By definition, capitulation means to surrender or give up. The technical annalist will use the term to isolate a point in time when investors have decided to give up on trying to recapture lost gains as a result of falling stock prices. On capitulation day, investors gripped by fear and panic will sell at any price.

Capitulation day occurs at the end of a corrective period and never at the beginning.

Toronto Financial Forum

Metro Toronto Convention Centre, North Building, Hall "C". Map and directions:

We are at booth 813.

Our Mission
Our mission this year is to sign up new members. There will be application forms at the booth. Filled out ones should be kept in the envelope provided. We accept cheques or they can write down their credit card number.

Talk to potential members about the benefits of joining, like:

* discounts on monthly meetings,
* newsletter,
* access to past presentations,
* library, and most importantly,
* to meet other like minded individual from the TA community

I encourage everyone to talk about their personal technical analysis work. just make sure to mention that you represent yourself and not the CSTA. day occurs at the end of a corrective period and never at the beginning.

broader market peaks of last summer an so I assume these two important stocks will bottom several weeks ahead of a broader recovery.

I will be a presenter at the 2008 Financial Forum & Wealth Management Expo on Saturday 4:pm January 26. The sponsor is the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts.

I will be on sheep and smart money watch and share my observations with you.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Dow Industrial vs Dow Transports

The relationship between the Dow Industrial and the Dow Transports will often signal important turning points - We will use WEEKLY - DAILY or INTER-DAY patterns to get the important signal

We are always looking for DIVERGENCE - which appears twice on the two charts - can you spot it? Hint - the second divergence (positive) is appearing today, Friday.

5-Day Trading Dow Industrials Monday to Friday 2:30 pm - still under pressure
5-Day Trading Dow Transports Monday to Friday 2:30pm - note the higher price

Monday, January 14, 2008


Sector Jan 11 Rank

iShares CDN Gold 8.70
iShares CDN Materials 4.19
TSX Utilities 0.08
iShares CDN Energy -0.26
iShares CDN Technology -1.07
iShares CDN S&P/TSX60 -2.50
iShares CDN Income Trust-6.06
TSX Industrials -6.18
iShares CDN Financial -6.29
TSX CDN Mid Cap -6.67
TSX Health Care -7.84
TSX Consumer Staples -8.28
iShares CDN Small Cap -8.42
TSX Telecommunications -8.61
TSX Consumer Discretion -9.37
TSX Diversified Metals&M -16.27

Sector Jan 11 Rank

streetTRACKS Gold 10.02
SPDR-Utilities XLU 4.41
SPDR-Energy XLE 2.75
SPDR-Consumer Stap 1.62
SPDR-Health Care 0.33
SPDR-Materials XLB -3.83
SPDR-Industrial XLI -5.6
SPDR-Technology XLK -8.36
HOLDRS Telecom TTH -8.54
HOLDRS Biotech BBH -8.95
HOLDRS Internet HHH -12.5
HOLDRS Semicon -13.17
SPDR-Consumer Disc -13.28
SPDR-Financial XLF -14.44
Total -69.54

Friday, January 11, 2008


The long depressed TSX Energy Trust Index is displaying signs of early out-performance vs. the TSX Composite Index

At this time there is no ETF and so stock selection is required – below are the 29 components

See GT letter GT1255 for relative performance ranking – some preferred names are BOLD

S&P/TSX Capped Energy Trust Index 11-Jan-08
Company Name Symbol

Harvest Energy Trust HTE.UN
Advantage Energy Income Fund AVN.UN
Inter Pipeline fund Trust IPL.UN
AltaGas Income Trust ALA.UN
Keyera Facilities Income Fund KEY.UN
ARC Energy Trust AET.UN
Mullen Group Income Fund MTL.UN
Baytex Energy Trust BTE.UN
NAL Oil & Gas Trust NAE.UN
Bonavista Energy Trust BNP.UN
Paramount Energy Trust PMT.UN
Canadian Oil Sands Trust COS.UN
Pembina Pipeline Income Fund PPF.UN
Canetic Resources Trust CNE.UN
Pengrowth Energy Trust PGF.UN
Crescent Point Energy Trust CPG.UN
Penn West Energy Trust PWT.UN
Daylight Resources Trust DAY.UN
Peyto Energy Trust PEY.UN
Enerflex Systems Income Fund EFX.UN
Precision Drilling Trust PD.UN
Enerplus Resources Fund ERP.UN
Progress Energy Trust PGX.UN
Focus Energy Trust FET.UN
Provident Energy Trust PVE.UN
Fort Chicago Energy Partners L.P. FCE.UN
Trinidad Energy Services Trust TDG.UN
Freehold Royalty Trust FRU.UN
Vermilion Energy Trust VET.UN

Friday, January 4, 2008

Dow Theory

A few comments on Dow Theory and a pending "sell" signal

- The Dow Theory "buy" and "sell" signals are very reliable - almost 90% over the past 90 years
- Dow Theory "buy" and "sell" signals are usually late - about 1/3 into a new bull or bear market
- The principle is a little complex but the basic rule is the DOW Industrials and the DOW Transports must confirm one another
- Three technical events must occur the get a buy or sell signal
- One of the averages makes a new 52-week high or low (1)
- The other fails to confirm and trades down to a "significant" low sometimes when the other is at a new 52-week high (2)
- Both rally and then trade below the "significant" low posted by the weaker average (3)