Friday, February 29, 2008

Rogers Sugar Income Fund

An over-looked soft commodity play

Rogers Sugar Income Fund (TSX-RSI.UN)

ROGERS SUGAR INCOME FUND is an open-ended, limited purpose trust established to hold all of the common shares and notes of Rogers Sugar Ltd. and Lantic Sugar Limited. Rogers and Lantic are refiners, processors, distributors and marketers of sugar products in Canada.

A reasonable yield and good possibility of a capital gain

Technically we have a break up & out of a large 2-year base
- note the strong money flow numbers (RED) and positive price momentum

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Forget gold - why I love silver

Silver stocks are scarce Silver Standard Resources, Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW.TO), Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM.TO) – anything that starts with “S”

A pure silver mine is rare the metal is usually a by-product of lead, zinc, copper and gold mining and when copper producers cut back – silver output is also cut

Too few silver stocks and too many dollars to chase them

Silver – unlike gold is consumed by industrial fabrication and like gold is horded - Silver ETF – coins – jewellery

Friday, February 22, 2008


Attention all you uranium lovers:

If you must participate in this group be selective or at least buy a basket because some of these risky plays can "torpedo" and sink your portfolio

We take a look at Uranium One Inc (TSX-UUU) which for some reason is a component of the S&P/TSX60 (what was Standard&Poor's thinking?)

In any event this stock is too "noisy" for our liking having gone through several name changes and failing to execute AND the possibility of removal from the S&P/TSX60

We would avoid bottom fishing on this dog

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Alt- Energy Screens

Our Energy screens cover coal, crude, natural gas, solar, fuel cells,
turbines, geothermal and uranium

Our local bellwether is Uranium Participation Corporation (TSX-U)

The weekly chart below clearly displays two bullish studies
a youthful intermediate cycle and strong money-flow numbers

An intermediate stock cycle can have a bull skew of 8 to 12 weeks

Bill Carrigan

Friday, February 15, 2008

Fundamental Indexing vs. a Passive Strategy

According to PowerShares Capital Management LLC The PowerShares FTSE™ RAFI US 1000 Portfolio (Fund) is based on the FTSE™ RAFI US 1000 Index. The Index is designed to track the performance of the largest U.S. equities, selected based on the following four fundamental measures of firm size: book value, cash flow, sales and dividends. The 1000 equities with the highest fundamental strength are weighted by their fundamental scores. The fundamentally weighted portfolio is rebalanced and reconstituted annually.

According to Dow Jones the Dow Jones Averages components are selected at the discretion of the editors of The Wall Street Journal. There are no pre-determined criteria except that components should be established U.S. companies that are leaders in their industries;

For the sake of continuity, composition changes are rare, and generally occur only after corporate acquisitions or other dramatic shifts in a components core business, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not limited to traditionally defined industrial stocks. Instead, the index serves as a measure of the entire U.S. market, covering such diverse industries as financial services, technology, retail, entertainment and consumer goods.

Question - how come the "managed" PowerShares are under performing the "unmanaged" Dow Industrials? So much for Fundamental Indexing.

Bill Carrigan

Thursday, February 14, 2008

BBD-B.TO this years best stock?

I’m ready for reality television – I call it Survivor Investment Challenge

Or - My one and only buy and sell stock pick for one year – no mater what.

I would buy Bombardier because of a massive 5-year inverse Head & Shoulder bottom formation – the neckline is at the $6.80 level and on a break above here we revisit the old peak

I would sell Canadian Tire because of a broken long term trend line, next support is $34

Bill Carrigan

Friday, February 8, 2008

Gold vs Silver

We think gold and the gold stocks are OK but silver could be a better bet

For two reasons

There is less hype in the silver complex and silver stocks are scarce.

Our Gold vs. Silver chart below displays short term relative performance and currently we have a "sell gold" and "own silver" signal

Those squiggly lines below are moving averages of relative strength - a technical tool unique to Gettingtechnical

Bill Carrigan

PS. We still own Paladin with a True Range stop set at $3.95 on a daily close.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Paladin (TSX-PDN)

We stepped and bought Paladin to-day at $4.65 (TSX-PDN)

For two reasons

The uranium sector has completed a nasty A-B-C type correction that began in May 2007 and has signal and end with price divergence at (A) and (B) - stock vs. a bellwether

The peers - the alternate energy group are also on the move - solar,coal, turbines, fuel cell are displaying strength - even dog Ballard Power showing some life signs
Stop at a new 52-week low

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Is the mini-bear over?

The big question:

Is the current July 2007 January 2008 mini bear over?

We always seek out important bellwethers for direction

Bellwether - the term is derived from the Middle English Bellewether - Refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram - (a wether) in order that this animal might lead its flock of sheep.

United Parcel Service is a bellwether for the U.S. economy

Note the negative divergence setup of last August - a warning of a pending corrective period
Monitor UPS here to rally from support to confirm the current advance