Monday, September 29, 2008

For GT Blog September 29, 2008

According to Horizons BetaPro Management Inc. the Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bull+ ETF (HBP 60 Bull+ ETF) and the Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear+ ETF (HBP 60 Bear+ ETF) seek daily investment results equal to 200% the daily performance, or inverse daily performance

Our proprietary relative performance oscillator – the Binary_RA6 can identify a pending turning point in these inverse products.

This allows for various strategies to reduce or increase long exposure – or to apply portfolio insurance when anticipated

We own the Bull when above Zero and own the Bear when below

Friday, September 26, 2008

For GT Blog September 26, 2008

Quarterly portfolio window dressing is one of many immortal Jaberwock-like creatures that roam the granite canyons of the Wall & Bay Street jungle, sending inappropriate signals to unwary investors

Basically at the end of each quarter portfolio managers blow out falling stocks at any price in order to pretend they never owned them.

This could present opportunity for investors seeking out stocks victimized by this silly charade

The names of some victims - Ace Aviation, Algonquin Power, Cameco, Can Tire, Cascades, Forzani, Hudbay, Harry Winston, Jean Coutu, MacDonald Dett, MDS, Norbord, Nortel, Petro Canada, Sherritt and Transat AT

Bill Carrigan

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

For GT Blog September 24, 2008

The current US FED bailout plan was raised concerns about the effect of too many dollars being printed to "fix" the problems on Wall Street.

Gold and the gold stocks could be a beneficiary of a pending return to an inflationary period

Perhaps the safer way to participate in a probable rally in the precious metals complex would be to seek out the oversold silver miners

Note our Silver vs Gold chart below - clearly displaying the oversold condition of silver

Bill Carrigan

Friday, September 19, 2008

Financials and Elliott Wave

A few observations on an Elliott Wave corrective wave (2) Low

Wave 2 often retraces most of wave 1’s upward move.

Often a sharp decline.

Fundamentals remain negative, perhaps less negative.

At the bottom, investor psychology is usually more bearish and negative than at the
beginning of wave 1, creating a positive divergence between momentum and sentiment.

The bottom of wave 2 is the safest entry point in the cycle.

Note the current higher lows in the Us and Canadian financial ETFs - The 2007-2008 financial bear is history

Bill Carrigan

Monday, September 15, 2008

UPS and the Bear

For GT Blog September 15, 2008

Years ago market participants used to say

"What is good for GM was good for America"

Then we dropped GM and went to IBM - we called IBM "Big Blue"

"What is good for Big Blue is good for America"

Forget all that - the real bellwether for the U.S. economy is UPS

That is because UPS is the shipper of choice for Main Street

The shares of UPS peaked last mid 2006 effectively forecasting the 2007 - 2008 bear

Now UPS is about to forecast the end of the 2007-2008 bear

Bill Carrigan