Tuesday, August 27, 2013

The S&P500 bad news & good news

Today from spdji_communications August 27, 2013

Begin Quote: Following are today’s factoids for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. When referencing our data in an article or other published work, please credit S&P Dow Jones Indices. For additional index data or information, please contact our team at S&P Dow Jones Indices Communications.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 14776.13
Down 170.33 points or 1.14%
·         Largest one-day points and percentage decline since August 15 2013.
·         Down two consecutive trading days.
·         Down 234.38 points or 1.56% over the two-day period.
·         Largest two-day points and percentage decline since August 16 2013.
·         Down 13 of the past 17 trading days

End Quote:

Our spin at Getting Technical - Looks like bad news but our chart of the NYSE A/D line has not yet broken down – the S&P500 is still in trend and the A/D line is holding key support at the mid June low or pivot point

Thursday, August 22, 2013

BNN Market Call e-mails:

I was a guest on BNN’s Market Call last Tuesday August 20 and aside from the top picks and the viewer call-ins, the guest is also provided with a list of e-mail questions which are addressed – if – there is a lull in the call-in questions. There was no lull and so if there is still interest I now serve up my technical spin on the viewer e-mails. The opinions are mine alone and not that of BNN or its affiliates - disclosure - I have no ownership to any of the issuers below

E-MAIL 1 Viewer: Sam Subject: Surge Energy (SGY TSX)

Q: What do you think of the charts?

A: Consolidation now following a big pop on volume in May – the P&F shows resistance ar $7.50 – if we break above that we get another big advance.

E-MAIL 2 Viewer: Ron Subject: “Inside days”

Q: You have briefly mentioned "inside days" in your column. To my knowledge , you are the only analyst who has ever mentioned the use of this tool. Could you briefly discuss and indicate whether you use other technicals in parallel.

A: An inside day is used by traders to time buy and sells. An inside day occurs when the current day trading range is less than – or smaller than the prior day trading range – which can be the sign of the end of a short term advance or decline.

E-MAIL 3 Viewer: George in Kitchener, ON Subject: Trian Wells & Energy (TCW TSX)

Q: Bill, may we please have your analysis on the energy services sector and trican?

 A: I like the sector but Trican has been a sector under perform – consider a switch to Precision Drilling or Total Energy

E-MAIL 4  Viewer: Donald in Edmonton Subject: DHX Media (DHX TSX)

Q: It is very good Company with but technically it seems to be breaking down. Does Bill have any insight into the future prospects for DHX Media?

A: The short term money flow numbers suggest someone is selling – I would reduce in here.

E-MAIL 5 Viewer: Denis Subject: Standard Pacific Corp (SPF NYSE)

Q: I would appreciate if you'll offer some technical analysis regarding the Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE:SPF) stock.

A: The sector was gone through a corrective phase and the P&F looks OK – big support at $7.00

E-MAIL 6 Viewer: Emma Subject: Wi-Lan (WIN TSX)

Q: Could I please have Bill’s technical analysis on Wi-LAN.

 A: The stock has been a poor relative perform for over 2-years and the P&F has broken down – and their business model depends on litigation – run away from this one  

E-MAIL 7 Viewer: Eric in Bridgewater, NS Subject: Neptune Technologies and Bioresources (NTB TSX)

Q: Please ask Bill for a buy, sell, or hold; and Why. My cost: about $4.50 per share. Thank you.

A: I like the health sciences space – this group is volatile and event driven – with big gains and big losses – the best strategy is to buy a basket – contact me directly for a list of suggestions.   

E-MAIL 8 Viewer: Khokon Subject: Major Drilling (MDI TSX)

Q: The canadian drillers appear to be surviving the current market quite nicely.  Is this rotation seasonally supported? I would appreciate your technical analysis of MDI.TO.

A: Remember that MDi is not an oilfield service provider but rather in the base metals space – the stock is down to long term support at $7.00 – if long do not average down or avoid a buy until the base metals sector turns higher

E-MAIL 9 Viewer: Brian Subject: Canadian Tire Corp (CTC. A TSX)

Q: Where do you expect the stock price to go over the next 6 to 12 months

A: The retail space is losing momentum but stocks like CDN Tire, Sears and Loblaw have had a boost from the REIT spin – typical of a late cycle attempt by management to boost investor interest – I would avoid the group    

E-MAIL 10 Viewer: Lou in Burlington, ON Subject: Pharma stocks

Q: What time of the year is the strongest for pharmaceutical stocks? Would you comment on the technical outlook for iShares S&P Global Healthcare Index Fund CAD-Hedged

A: Again I like the health sciences space – now the iShares S&P Global Healthcare Index Fund (CAD-Hedged) (HXC) is heavy in pharma stocks and light on biotech stocks – the BMO Equal Weight US Health Care Hedged to CAD Index ETF (ZUH) may have a little more biotech exposure – see E-MAIL 7

Monday, August 12, 2013

Steven Hochberg and gold:

Hochberg is a gold bear, this is a clip from Yahoo finance August 9, 2013 “Gold Bear Market Is Not Over Yet: Elliott Wave’s Hochberg” and I quote, “It's been a great month, but a bad year that's about to get worse. That's the short version of the outlook from Elliott Wave International's chief market analyst Steve Hochberg, who thinks any bounce in gold will prove to be short-lived.

"The one thing we can say is that gold's bear market is not over yet," he says in the attached video, confidently predicting the precious metal's continued demise.” (and) "We're two years into (gold's) bear market," he explains. "I think gold is setting itself up for another leg down in this ongoing bear market to correct the prior rally we had from the 1999 low.”

Ok I don’t think the Hochberg bear call is correct. Now when I look at the GDXJ daily chart (thanks to Stocksharts.com) I see a possible bullish juncture – if – the price can break above the pivot point at late July at “B”. The last pivot at late April at “A” was followed by a swing failure in early June. The recent jump in volume at the last higher low of August 7 is bullish. What is good for the GDXJ is good for bullion.

Friday, August 9, 2013

NYSE Advance / Decline Line swing failure

Another update on the NYSE AD Line

When you look at the current chart of the S&P500 plotted above the NYSE Advance / Decline Line (AD line) one can see two technical problems.

The first problem is the negative divergence setup between the two lines – the higher high on the S&P500 and the lower high of the A/D line. The second problem is the swing failure of the A/D line and the move below the 20 period smoothing.

A correction is underway – but the duration and magnitude is not predictable at this time.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

NYSE breadth is failing

Just an update from June 1, 2013 and July 24, 2013 on the NYSE AD Line and just to repeat the Advance / Decline Line (AD line) is used to measure the breadth of a stock market. The AD line tracks the net difference between advancing and declining issues. It is usually compared to a market average where divergence from that average would be an early indication of a possible trend reversal

The upper plot is the S&P500 and the lower plot is the NYSE A/D line which is a worry now because of the double peaks of mid May and now. Keep an eye on that simple 20-day moving average. Yesterday’s latest break suggests a mild correction dead ahead.