Wednesday, October 28, 2009

For GT Blog October 28, 2009

Don Vialoux has removed me from his mailing list in reaction to my CSTA rant last week. I will miss Don's analysis because I have an interest in the TSX listed Tim Hortons Inc. (THI) which would hopefully pass three of Don’s tests – seasonality – fundamentals and the technicals. I am weak on the seasonal and fundamental issues so I will give it a try – some feedback would help


Seasonal affective disorder (SAD) takes its toll on millions of North Americans each year, a condition that leads to depression, anxiety, and chronic fatigue as the winter months ensue. It's one reason why people migrate to sunnier quarters during winter season – or in the alternative remain in Canada and eat more donuts.


A simple observation of the Hortons’ drive through any morning clearly shows that Canadians love their morning coffee and donuts. When the Hortons’ medium coffee cup is examined for volume it is clearly less than the McDonald's medium cup – at about the same price – this tells me Hortons’ make more money per serving – (personally I like the McDonald’s coffee)

The Technicals

The chart below displays a huge symmetrical triangle which tends to precede a major move – up or down. The lower study is a relative analysis test which is showing recent improvement in THI vs the TSX Composite. Hortons is also a “safe” place to hide when investors seek to leave the riskier assets – watch for the break to the upside

1 comment:

chrispycrunch said...

Tim's roll up the rim is a fundamental and seasonal influence for this stock specifically. Though, bad weather is an unknown and can easily negate this annual "timing."