Thursday, May 27, 2010

Tea Leaves, Voodoo & Other Dark Forces (3)

Today I am posting another tragic example of machines gone wild or squiggly line madness so common to-day. Our chart is a daily study of Suncor Energy using candlesticks accompanied by an RSI, Bollinger Bands, three moving averages, a MACD and a slow stochastic. At least 11 squiggly lines to ponder. The chart is a daily plot up to the close at $30.69 at May 26, 2010.

Now I never liked Suncor because it has been a persistent under performer through September 2009. I am also not a fan of the tar sands producers because their business models are cluttered with cost problems and environmental issues. Now aside from my personal negative bias I bought the stock for a trade - can you guess why?

I can see the RSI still trending downward, the price is running down a lower Bollinger Band, the price is below 3 moving averages, the MACD has not turned up yet and the slow stochastic has not quite curled up. Finally the candlestick plot has just issued a black bar. So why would I buy now?

5 comments:

Piazzi said...

get rid of all that noise and you are at the bottom at support.

what the noisy chart does not show is that the level was held in July 2009 in 2008 when the world was and was resistance when world was collapsing

If it holds, you may get a double bottom

If not, your stop's not far behind and you get out below 30 or so

Kathleen said...

You're buying SU.TO now because you think it will hit the top of the upper Bollinger band? And also because energy stocks are poised to rally after being beaten up the last while?

Greg said...

Price crossing 20 EMA
Histogram crossing 0
OBV increasing

Anonymous said...

I know you've said you can't catch the bottom or the top but I have studied the charts as you indicate and am wondering when clearity will see through all the seeming manipulation going on. Many stocks, eg. BBD.B and TWF.UN, are way below 200 day avgs, and the other monitors but seem to not be getting any legs. I am a close follower, read and appreciate your insights, but it just seems that dart boarding is yielding the same results - none, or just losing money. I guess frustration has taken over.

Anonymous said...

Good comments so far. I'd like to add another potential reason. How about the need to fill the gap between ~33.60 and 34.40 that was created back on May 5th??? Nature abhors a vacuum.