Sunday, July 25, 2010

Squiggly Lines

Last evening an associate copied me on an research item authored by David Pescod of Canaccord Wealth Management. Mr. Pescod was curious as to why two technical analysts (myself and Larry Berman) could have “almost opposite views” on the outlook for the equity markets when “they both look at the same squiggly lines”. The item can be downloaded from gettingtechnical.com/analyis/filters – or follow this link: http://www.gettingtechnical.com/04_analysis/pdf_files/cfilter.pdf

The item is actually dealing with two issues – Larry and seem I disagree and that we both look at the same squiggly lines

I have not spoken to Larry on this but as far as I am concerned it is the disagreement among investors, portfolio managers and analysts that allow the markets to operate. If we all agreed on a securities value – all securities would be perfectly priced – we would all be right – a perfect investing world. Sadly it is the squiggly line movement that is hurting the our profession. Today anyone can be a technician – all you have to do is to log onto one of the hundreds of free charting web sites and presto – you have a nice squiggly line chart and suddenly you’re an expert. Oh! by the way – don’t forget there are millions of investors looking at the same squiggly lines and are they all right?

2 comments:

scseverin said...

Hi Bill. Saw your BNN Market Call appearance. Great show. You are the true market guru!

What momentum indicator / formula are you using to generate the bottom portion of the chart you displayed during the show? Specifically, the momentum portion at the bottom of the secular 68-82 U.S. market chart.

Gettingtechnical.com said...

Hello scseverin

That line you refer to is the Coppock Curve - there are several versions - the one I use is the Notley/Stark 1980's cycle used in the early RBC Trend & Cycle work - it is the best way to identify bull & Bear cycles - Bill Carrigan