Monday, October 18, 2010

Dominant Theme Investing:

Just to review - Dominant Theme investing means that we seek out and retain a group of stocks or a stock sector(s) that emerges from obscurity or a crisis to assume a leadership roll or be the "next big thing" for at least a decade. Some past modern Dominant Themes were the US auto industry from 1946 to 1974 and the new economy technology boom of 1980 to 2000.

Thanks to your input there seems to be a North American theme related to anything serving the needs of the greedy baby boomers (travel, gaming, pharmaceutical & health care). Transportation and energy could also be a fit here. On the global front we see the emerging market stock markets Brazil, China, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia, etc push up to new 52-week highs. Global consumerism is real - think of cheeseburgers and Buicks in Peking - the early setting for a food and auto theme.

I would think the best way to get stared is to recall the post war boom in North America fro 1946 to 1973 when we saw growth in autos, highways, hotels, motels, theme parks, and fast food chains. Now add in the Internet, telecom, infrastructure and we have a repeat or echo boom in the emerging markets. Right now the Dow Industrials are loaded with global multinationals that are growing their business overseas and they could care less about the US fiscal and monetary problems at home.
Here is a sample list of some large US multi-nationals that do over half of their business in the global markets, Schlimberger Ltd, Avon, Colgate-Palmolive, Corning, Hewlett-Packard, Molson Coors, Dow Chemical, Chevron, Western Union, McDonalds Corp, Diamond Offshore, International Bus Machines, Pfizer, Freeport-McMoran, Oracle Corp, EBAY, General Electric and Caterpillar. There are many more see our chart and to be continued

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