Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Cheeseburgers, KFC & Copper

No doubt we have to credit the Chinese growth story for the big 2010 gains in the North American stock markets. The broadest measure of U.S. equities, the Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index (formerly the Wilshire 5000) gained 15.34% in 2010, or approximately $2.3 trillion in market capitalization. The index has gained 44.99% since 2008. Most notable was the index gain of 23.35% during the third and fourth quarters.

Investors in the commodity space were the big winners with the price of crude, gold, silver, cotton, copper, uranium and potash all soaring in response to the China story.

Our chart displays two direct beneficiaries of the China story – the big fast food players McDonalds (MCD) and YUM Brands (YUM). Look at the price action over the past several weeks – down is the face of a late December rally the took most of the broader stock indices to 52-week highs. Clearly these Chinese consumer bellwethers are predicting a Chinese slowdown – if you love the copper / Chinese story MCD & YUM may give you indigestion.


Anonymous said...

Mr. Carrigan,

in a prior post, you said you were liked the Summation aspect of cycles.

Could you elaborate on that point and tell us how you measure Summation

I know of the Summation Index, and it formula that McClellan uses, I am interested in knowing what you mean by Summation

best Regards said...

Hello Mr ??
Cycle summation is the total influence of the major time cycles - quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily - When they all trough we can expect a big advance and when they all peak we have a market top - if they splay we get
cyclic opposition and price congestion or flat periods of low volatility

Currently the Russell 2000 is at a monthly cyclic peak, a weekly peak and a daily trough

Bill C