The Gartman Track Record

Gold bulls cheer up, the worst may be over. I just found this on Forbes.com 12/12/2011 @ 2:00PM. “Gold prices continue to tumble in the face of a stronger dollar, prompting the generally bullish Dennis Gartman to say he expects the yellow metal to fall to $1,450 an ounce before it breaches $1,800.  Gartman has fully closed his gold position.”

According to Horizons Exchange Traded Funds. The Horizons Gartman ETF (TSX-HAG) gives investors direct exposure to the investment strategies of The Gartman Letter. They go on to say Dennis Gartman likely doesn’t need any introductions. Author of The Gartman Letter a highly regarded daily macro-economic and trading-oriented newsletter which is read by the investment community including leading global banks, brokerage firms, hedge funds, mutual funds and commodity trading companies

Gartman is a perfect contrarian indicator - look at his “real money” track record. From inception March 26, 2009 (that is when the global equity markets bottomed) the HAG is down 23% or negative 9.21% annualized. The bid at the close Dec 12, 2011 @ $7.65 would be another new 52-week low.

Our chart today is the daily closes of the HAG plotted above the TSX60 Index. The relative perform vs. the TSX60 is “disturbing”. Note the position of the 10 & 30 week MA with the 10 week for the most part below the 30 week MA over a 140 week period. That is a down trend. Go figure.