Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Second Technology Boom Gets Underway

About 4-weeks ago I explained Cisco’s Secular Bear that began in early 2000 and is now into year 12 which is the completion of three shorter bull and bear cycles which is a business cycle of about 40 months discovered in the 1920s by Joseph Kitchin. A secular bull will contain about seven of the shorter bull and bear Kitchin cycles and a secular bear will contain about three of the shorter bull and bear Kitchin cycles.

A pending 4th Kitchin cycle is just getting underway and should drive CSCO up and out of the secular bear – in effect introducing a new secular bull or an “Echo” Global Tech Boom. We can now assume what is good for Cisco is good for the broader technology sector and a look at the NASDAQ Comp seems to confirm my analysis with the index just to-day breaking to an eleven year high. We need to own the QQQ’s or a basket of names like CISCO, Intel, Microsoft, eBay and Apple. Canadian dollar accounts could enjoy the TSX listed BMO ZQQ.


Shawn Severin said...

Outstanding call on US technology and the broad US market.

Things aren't looking so great for the TSX though. Where do you see it heading over the next 6 to 12 months?


Anonymous said...

Hi Bill, coincidentally the gold secular bull market has run 12 years. Would the Kitchen cycles suggest that it is completing and acts inversely to technology sector?