Wednesday, April 3, 2013

A pending bull trap

According to the team at S&P Dow Jones Indices Communications at the close of April 2, 2013 Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 14662.01, up 89.16 points, or 0.61% and was a new record close. The Dow was also up fourteen of the past twenty trading days. Yesterday the top five contributors to The Dow's movement and their point contribution: UNH (21.27), IBM (15.21), HD (10.37), PG (9.68), MCD (9.29).

The Dow was up 123.95% from its 12-year closing low of 6547.05 on March 9, 2009 and up 11.08% from 52 weeks and year-to-date up 11.89%.

Very impressive but what is not impressive is the failure of the Dow Transports, the SOX semiconductor index, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the Russell 2000 small cap index to confirm the Dow’s record performance. This non-confirmation is typical of an aging bull market. The upper candlestick plot displays a bearish trend break of the SMH and as us old timers know – when the semiconductors sneeze – the market gets pneumonia.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...


I notice you have removed the timing models from your Analysis pull down menu. These have shown strong, long term buy signals.

The advance decline line continues to show new highs along with the DJIA and SP500. The DJTA has not reached new highs but has not broken down.

Today I saw this bear/bull sentiment from AAII and I really believe something different is going on here

As always Grandaddy, I appreciate your work.