Monday, July 22, 2013

Precious metals rebound opportunities review:

On a post July 1, 2013 I assumed there to be opportunity due to the recent bearish stampede out of the precious metal miners which had driven the prices of many miners down to levels that were extreme as measured by per cent (negative) deviation from the mean – in this case a simple 30-week moving average.

The table displayed was the output from a filter run at June 2013 month end that screened a basket of precious metals producers as to their current per cent negative distance from their respective 30-week simple moving averages. The selected basket was sorted by the % deviation number and then divided into four probable outcomes.

Low Risk Recovery Selections: Lowest risk with moderate short term positive returns
Medium Risk Recovery Selections: Low risk with fair short term positive returns.
High Risk Recovery Selections: High risk with above market positive returns
Question of Survival Selections: Very high risk with volatile returns.

The updated table displays the returns over the last 15 trading days with impressive returns. Perhaps the next study should be based on extreme positive deviation from the mean.

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