Thursday, October 22, 2015

A look at secular bears:

The outlook looks bad for Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) with crude prices at or near 10 year lows and now a Liberal majority in Ottawa. But in reality Suncor has been a terrible investment ever since the 2009 dead cat rebound from the 2008 lows.

So much for the fundamentals

On the technical side – Suncor is beginning to print a bullish price structure. Our chart is a very long term plot – monthly bars of Suncor spanning almost ten years which happens to display Suncor’s 2008 – 2015 secular bear.

Now a bull & bear cycle count for a secular bull is about 5 cycles but sometimes extending to 7 cycles in total – or about 15 to 20+ years. Secular bears are shorter with about 3 cycles or about 8 to 12 years. On the Suncor chart we see a flat 3-cycle secular bear and rising money flow numbers from the trough of the 2nd bear to the current 3rd and final bear which should introduce a new secular bull for Suncor

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