Saturday, February 25, 2017

Long Term Market Cycles:

The Coppock Curve is rarely used today but according to Wikipedia the Coppock curve or Coppock indicator is a technical analysis indicator for long-term stock market investors created by E.S.C. Coppock, first published in Barron's Magazine on October 15, 1962. The indicator is designed for use on a monthly time scale. It is the sum of a 14-month rate of change and 11-month rate of change, smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average.

Coppock, the founder of Trendex Research in San Antonio, Texas, was an economist. He had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like bereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he used those periods in his calculation.

A buy signal is generated when the indicator is below zero and turns upwards from a trough. No sell signals are generated (that not being its design). The indicator is trend-following, and based on averages, so by its nature it doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become established.

Coppock designed the indicator (originally called the "Trendex Model" for the S&P 500 index, and it has been applied to similar stock indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is not regarded as well-suited to commodity markets, since bottoms there are more rounded than the spike lows found in stocks.    .

Strategy - Investors should remain fully invested during a “buy” and then go to a 10 to 15% cash position during a “sell” signal. The last “buy” on the TSX60 was signalled in April, 2016 at 20.54 on the index.

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