The long cycle dominates the shorter cycle - we prefer the intermediate or weekly cycle for our work - the cycle can generate about two trades per 12-month window
In most markets there is a high degree of sector cyclic commonality - but sometimes we will enter a period when there is cyclic opposition
Currently the gold complex is operating in cyclic opposition to the broader stock indices.
Cyclic Opposition in Action - Gold Stocks & the S&P500
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2 comments:
Hi Bill
Interesting observation, some technicians have been mentioning that the gold seasonal play is coming up which could explain that the technicals for gold (and stocks) are improving little by little. Interestingly enough, Sprott in September of last year suggested to buy gold. Do you think the seasonality of gold will act as a catalyst that would result in a breakout upwards out of the triangle and thus will resume an upward trend based on fundamentals (downward pressure of the US dollar, inflation, etc?)?
By the way, to answer the question of your previous post, I will resort the old adage "if you don't know, chances are it is in a Wave 4". If that is true, this means we are almost at the end of a long bull run.
Thank you very much for your posts; as a humble university student trying to put some of his saved money to work, this has helped me learn the application of technical analysis (my banker brother was initially skeptical, but it didn't take long for me to convince him that an all fundamental approach never works).
JG
Thanks for the comments
On the cycle chart - the observation is that Gold and the S&P500 currently have an inverse relationship which
is of use to portfolio managers who use a small weight in gold to lower a portfolio's volatility
The Sprott comments have no value because they are conflicted - NEVER act on conflicted opinion
On the Elliott question -
The higher lows on ever increasing bad news is a classic beginning of an Elliott 3rd wave advance
Very bullish
Bill Carrigan
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