Thursday, March 12, 2009

For GT Blog March 12, 2009

The Recognition Point

Elliott wave (3) or - the second up-leg advance is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend. The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat.

A buying panic can occur when the prices in wave (3) exceed the peak of wave (1) sometimes called wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend.

I am assuming wave (1) to be the November 2008 to January 2009 advance

The last bull market recognition point occurred in May 2003

Note the TSX Comp "Recognition Point" at 9500 on the index - should be an easy target in this over-sold market

An Official Bull? …….. Soon


greenspanner said...

Wave 1 does not appear to have impulsive characteristics and falls below the starting point in November.

I fear the current upward wave is d of E of B from 2007. If this is true then wave e of E is still to come.

Canadian Money said...


If I understand your wave count.

Wave 1 began at the November low and peaked at the January high.

Unfortunately, wave 2 never under any circumstances retraces to a point below the start of wave 1. That is one of the EWP rules.

This means that the rally that began on Friday, March 6th can't possibly be an upward moving third wave.

Wish I had better news.


cliffy said...

have we seen wave 2?
if we did, are we at wave 3 or that's what the rec ognition poiny will tell us?

Do you see Su correcting back to $22-23?

greenspanner said...

Hi Bill

In my Elliott note yesterday I think I referred to wave B down when I should have referred to wave C down.

greenspanner said...

For further clarity:

Wave 1 to the recognition point does not appear to have impulsive characteristics and wave 2 falls below the starting point of wave 1 in November.

July 2007 started a large Wave C down that appears to be an ABCXABCDE extended double three pattern. Since the beginning of January this year we appear to be in the E of this pattern that seems to be fragmenting and evolving in to a still smaller five wave abcde pattern down

I fear the current upward wave is d of E of C from July 2007. If this is true, then down wave e of E is still to come and e waves often overextend.